This year sees the centenary of the commencement of the First World War. A hundred years ago a series of events – improbable, secondary, even seemingly trivial – formed an epicentre that pulled at all the strings of old alliances and hostilities to suck in most of Europe (and eventually even the USA) into a destructive war that changed the world forever.

It only takes a spark

It all started with the assassination in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir apparent to the throne of Austria-Hungary, on 28 June 1914. The assassination attempt was so amateurishly carried out it that borders on the comical. Two of the would-be assassins got cold feet at the last moment. A third threw a bomb at the passing car in which the Archduke was being driven, which bounced off the car’s convertible cover onto the street. A number of people were injured but the Archduke was unscathed.

But, as the Provisional IRA said about their failure to kill Margaret Thatcher in the Brighton bombing of 1984, “we need to get lucky only once”. And did the plotters get lucky in this case! After a reception at the Town Hall, the Archduke and his wife decided to pay a visit to the hospital where those injured in the earlier bombing were being treated. On the way there, the driver took a wrong turn. Realising his mistake, he stopped the car, intending to reverse back to the intended route. This gave enough time and opportunity to Gavrilo Princip, a member of the assassination team who was sitting in a nearby café (probably rueing the failed attempt), to empty his gun on the Archduke and his wife.

Europe in flames

The assassination raised tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, having been planned and sourced by a group of Serbian military officers. Yet what came to be known as the “July crisis” was still seen as a marginal event. So much so that the German Kaiser felt that it did not warrant cancelling his yachting holiday, British Prime Minister Lloyd George continued pressing for naval cutbacks to give a sign of improving relations with Germany and the Serbian Chief of Staff was on holiday – in Hungary.

Yet, as a recent book on the War described the situation, Europe’s leaders were sleep-walking towards a precipice. Austria-Hungary gave an ultimatum to Serbia with conditions that the latter could never completely accept and that would become the casus belli. Russia, Serbia’s ally, mobilised its troops. Germany, Austria-Hungary’s ally, decided to mobilise after Russia did so. France, Russia’s ally, followed suit. And when Germany decided to invade France through neutral Belgium, Britain and its Empire declared war on Germany.

The cost

In the four years that followed, more countries would be dragged in the conflict: the Ottoman Empire, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, Portugal, Japan and the USA would find themselves joining one side or the other. Only Russia would exit before it was all over – and then only because a communist revolution, made possible by the wartime conditions and defeat, brought down the previous order.

The ultimate result was close to 40 million military and civilian casualties, around half of which were deaths. Scientific and technological developments which, in the previous century, had engendered a spirit of optimism in the continued betterment of the quality of life showed that they could deliver on the horrors with the same reliability with which they had delivered the benefits.

Peace in our times

The centenary should offer some opportunity for reflection. I will limit myself to two here. First, is to realise that we have come a long way (though not without succumbing to another global conflict) and that, thanks to the visionaries who championed strong international multilateral institutions and the promotion of peace and commerce, a major European war has become an unrealistic, if not impossible, scenario.

Second, is to be aware that, just as in 1914, events that seem remote and unimportant could lead to far wider consequences. From the Middle East to the Indian subcontinent, from the Ukraine to the Far East, there are conflicts which, although regional, are not devoid of the risk of growing into something wider. Unlike our forebears of 1914, we should not lower our guard.

Mr Puli is the Shadow Minister for the Family & Social Solidarity