Tunisia's recent parliamentary elections were a significant step forward in the country's transition to full democracy. The country, which sparked the Arab Spring with the self- immolation of a young street trader, Mohammed Bouazizi, on 17 December 2010, still offers hope of a genuine transition to democracy, amid the dashed hopes for democratic reform across North Africa and the Middle East.
The uprising in Tunisia was the first and least violent in the region, though there were scores of deaths and injuries during the four-week stand off between the autocratic President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and the demonstrators. It was the result of years of pent-up grievances over the greed of the ruling elite, police brutality and lack of freedom. On 14 January 2011, the President officially resigned after fleeing to Saudi Arabia. Since then Tunisia's transition to democracy has been far from smooth, and at times risked being derailed by political assassinations, by threats of an Islamist takeover, and by mass protests prompted by unmet expectations for better living conditions.
Upon Ben Ali's departure the Constitutional Court appointed an acting president and a caretaker coalition government with Ben Ali's Prime Minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi, continuing in office and including key ministers from Ben Ali's party, the Constitutional Democratic Rally (CDR). The non-CDR ministers resigned immediately, while daily street protests throughout the country demanded a clean break with the past. Prime Minister Ghannouchi at first announced an interim national unity government, but amid further protests he resigned on 27 February 2011. He was succeeded by Beji Caid el Sebsi, a veteran political figure hailing from the pre-Ben Ali era, who immediately announced that elections for a Constituent Assembly would be held on 23 October 2011.
The October 2011 elections were the first free elections held in Tunisia since the country's independence in 1956. Tunisians were given the opportunity to elect by universal suffrage a Constituent Assembly of 217 members, mandated to appoint a new government and draw up a new constitution. In spite of the instability and uncertainty throughout the country, the turnout exceeded 50%, and international observers, coming from the European Union, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Carter Centre, described the elections as largely free and fair. The Islamist Ennahda party came on top with 89 seats, short of an outright majority,. It formed a "troika" government in coalition with two smaller secularist centre-left parties, the Congress for the Republic (CPR) and the Democratic Forum for Labour and Liberties (Ettakatol), which won respectively, 29 and 20 seats.
Tunisia's first experience under a directly elected government was a turbulent one. The Ennahda led Constituent Assembly elected Moncef Marzouki President of Tunisia. Mr Marzouki, a physician and eminent human rights activist, and leader of the Congress for the Republic Party, which came second in the elections, was seen as a wise and reconciliatory choice. The Secretary-General of Ennahda, Hamadi Jebali, was sworn as Prime Minister. The appointment of Mr Jebali, one of the early leaders of the Islamist movement and one of the most persecuted opponents of former President Ben Ali, having spent more than 15 years in prison, most of them in solitary confinement, was meant to assuage the Islamist electorate.
Unfortunately, the Ennahda government dithered in the power struggle between the Islamist and Secularist movements. Ennahda's Islamist grass roots, particularly the Salafists, pressed for a curb on the western lifestyle of many Tunisians and for the transformation of Tunisia into an Islamic state. In May 2012, Salafi attacks on alcohol sellers led to violent clashes and to attacks on police stations. The following month the government had to impose an overnight curfew in eight cities following riots by Islamists against an art exhibition. The Secularist coalition reacted with protests in Tunis against moves by the Ennahda government to reduce women's rights and to encroach on civil liberties. More violent anti-Islamist protests broke out in February 2013, following the assassination of Chokri Belaid, a vocal secular politician, leader of the leftist Democratic Patriots' Movement. Amid allegations that the ruling Ennahda party was behind the killing, Ennahda Prime Minister Jebali resigned after he failed to convince his party to back a government of technocrats. His successor, Interior Minister Ali Laarayadh, failed to deal decisively with the Islamist threat.
The political crisis that followed the assassination on 25 July 2013, of another opposition politician, Mohamed Brahmi, leader of the People's Movement, brought Tunisia's transition to democracy to the brink of breakdown. The killing prompted mass demonstrations and a general strike. After months of uncertainty, the Ennahda government agreed to hand over power to an interim government of independents and technocrats led Mr Mehdi Jomaa, an independent politician, tasked with organising fresh elections.
The non-violent legislative elections held on 26 October 2014, and the conciliatory reactions of the leading parties to the results, indicate that the political and social turmoil may well be over. The Secularist Nidaa Tounes (Call for Tunisia) party won 85 seats, beating the incumbent Islamist Ennahda, which came second with 69 seats. Ennahda's leaders won international praise for gracefully conceding defeat, calling on their supporters to celebrate democracy.
The pragmatism and capacity to adapt shown by the Islamist Ennahda party are crucial for Tunisia's stability and consolidation of democracy. Analysts agree that Ennahda, even though it lost much popularity during the time it spent in government, remains the most disciplined and the best organised party across Tunisia, and the only one that can restrain Islamist extremists. It was shaken out of its original dream of transforming Tunisia into an Islamic state by the events in Egypt during July 2013, when the army ousted President Mohammed Morsi and embarked on a massive repression of the Moslem Brotherhood. Since then Ennahda managed to develop a more broad-based membership, and has shown remarkable readiness to cooperate with the secular opposition.
With none of the political groups gaining a majority of seats in the recent elections, extended negotiations are expected for the formation of a new government. There is much speculation about the possibility of a grand coalition between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda; however, such a formal coalition is still highly unpalatable to segments of both parties. Nonetheless, the leadership of both parties understands that an informal understanding between Secularists and Islamists is essential for Tunisia's stability, and for tackling Tunisia's economic and security problems.
Since the ousting of President Ben Ali, Tunisia's economic situation has worsened and the level of unemployment has increased. It is estimated that 33% of Tunisians aged between 15 and 29 are not in employment, education or training. (World Bank, October 2014 report). The security situation is equally precarious, especially on the Libyan border and in the Mount Chaambi region bordering Algeria, where the crossing of arms and fighters inside Tunisia is difficult to control. Moreover, it is estimated that around 3000 Tunisians have travelled to fight with the Jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria. Their possible return to Tunisia is a matter of grave concern to the stability of the country.
No agreement on the formation of a new government is expected before the presidential elections on 23 November 2014. The leader of Nidaa Tounes, the veteran 88-year old Beja Caid El Sebsi, is the front runner. Ennahda has decided not to field a candidate, declaring that it will support the candidate who is most likely to win national consensus. According to Tunisia's newly adopted constitution, executive power is shared by the prime minister, who has the more dominant role, and the president, who retains important prerogatives, especially in defence and foreign affairs. Clever and pragmatic political balancing is needed to ensure that the people's wishes, as expressed both in the legislative and in the upcoming presidential elections, will be respected.
Tunisia's successful consolidation of democracy can only be guaranteed if Tunisians begin to enjoy the benefits of democratic politics. It is the responsibility of its political leaders to prove that a democratically elected government and president can deliver freedom, dignity, economic development and social justice.
Tunisia's continued democratic development is of enormous significance to the Mediterranean, and Malta, together with the European Union, should make every effort to support it.