On the coming 11 April half of the electorate, including for the very first time 16- year olds in Malta and Gozo, is called to vote in thirty-four local councils’ elections. Half of the electorate is a very good sample and a reliable reflection of the other half. The result will be a good source of information for political parties. Nonetheless, one has to make some allowances.  It would be misleading to conclude that the general election, in three years-time will follow the same footprint.

The disappointment recently publicly expressed by Michael Briguglio and Martin Scicluna during a debate between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition is indicative of government’s poor performance during the past two years, at least on the subjects touched upon during the Times Talk programme on TVM.

This expressed disappointment will be echoed by a good number of the PL rank-and-file.They will voice their disappointment at their Party in silence, by annulling their vote. Others will stay at home and keep their voting document in their pocket for future reference. Others, in protest, will shift their preferences onto the PN candidates, knowing that this will not put the PL into any form of quandary.  This will only bring some blushes to the Prime Minister and the rest of the PL team; nonetheless, it is an opportunity for the PL supporters to express their frustration and to let of steam.

In the coming local councils’ elections, the PN is expected to head for another crashing electoral defeat.  This cannot be otherwise. Voters cannot be expected to shift their political party preference within twenty-four months unless, that is, society is suffering from an undetected unusual bout of contradictions.

One can bet that the PN apologists have already drafted different press releases, full of all imaginable justifications, excuses, alibi and arguments to sugar the pill once the local councils’ elections results are announced. Figures will be turned upside downand interpreted in the strangest of manners.  There is no need for such a thing.

The coming local elections results have to be taken into a context. The PN has suffered two heavy electoral defeats. These came about for a myriad of reasons, but primarily the PN was disconnected from the electorate.  In the 2013 general election, the PN garnered 43.34% against the 54.83% gained by the PL.  This trend continued to show, with the PL’s 53.39% and the PN’s 40.02% of the total votes in the European Parliament election in May 2014.

The electoral mood was and is still clear enough for those who want to see.

The PL is surfing on the high tide, and no amount of political bickering will change this in the short run. Cosmetic, or even major, surgery in the PN structures will not persuade voters to shift allegiances or entice voters to return back to the fold within a short span of time.

The twenty-two months of the PL’s stint, which was led by former Prime Minister, Dr Alfred Sant, in 1996 should not be used as a benchmark. It was clear from the very beginning the PL could not take the heat with a wafer thin parliamentary majority and with former PM Dom Mintoff sitting on the back-bench.     

The PN leadership should, at this late hour, change tack and start preparing voters for another electoral defeat. In the absence of this, many will be further disappointed and feel that they have no place for shelter. Another victory for the party in government will surely go the PL’s head, further riding roughshod on meritocracy, accountability and transparency. The PN should outsmart the PL and clearly state that the forthcoming local councils’elections are only a pit-stop on a very fastlane in the race. The finishing line is three years away.    

On the other hand, if the PL, against all odds, earns a negative result in this round of local councils’ elections then that would be something which should be analysed in depth in the inner circles of the PL administration. If the huge popular support gained in the last two nation-wide elections is wearing out already, then it will not only be an electoral defeat for the PL but a victory for the PN.

Whatever the outcome, the huge support gained by the PL will only wear out if the PN is capable to show collegiality at all levels and painstakingly continues to work at grass-roots level. The latter is no easy task.

The Holy Week is a time for spiritual reflection; though this time may be opportune for other contemplation!

Happy Easter.

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