The result of the last general election in the UK was such a surprise that I thought of waiting for a few weeks to pass by before taking a second, longer look at the outcome. For better or for worse, we share much with the political culture of the UK and there are insights and lessons to be learnt. Some psephology – even of the amateur and armchair variety – would not go amiss.
In the months leading to E-Day we had been conditioned by opinion polls to assume that the result would be neck-and-neck between the two main parties, a reduced vote for the Liberal Democrats, increased support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) north of the border and a possible breakthrough for the UK Independence Party (UKIP). However, the first exit poll, surveying voters as soon as they had left the polling station, painted a very different picture of the front runners – which was eventually confirmed by the final result.
Race to the finishing line
How could a considerable number of well-established polling organisations get their surveys that wrong? With the stakes being as high as they are, methodologies for predicting voters’ intentions have been honed and fine-tuned for years and years. Nowadays, surveys like these cannot but be described as “scientific”.
We should never forget, however, that voters are not automatons. They change their minds as to whether or not to vote and, if they do, for whom. This is not to mention the fact that they might not be forthright or even entirely honest with the pollster. Ultimately, what counts is not the reply given in a poll but which box was ticked in the polling booth. And it seems than many voters who were undecided or lukewarm about the election ultimately decided to go and vote blue.
Of course, Tory strategists did not just sit passively waiting for this to happen. They stuck to a simple message – that only the Conservatives could be trusted with handling the economy – and kept hammering that in. Ultimately, it worked. As we would say in Maltese: “It-tiġrija sal-barkun.”
Take nothing for granted
The other big surprise was the magnitude of the SNP’s victory in Scotland. The Scottish political landscape has changed radically. From a marginal party, the SNP has moved to the mainstream, despite the fact that the its main political goal – independence – was defeated in a referendum only eight months before the election and by a wide 10 per cent margin.
In my view, the vote in Scotland was far from being a one-off ‘protest vote’. Political parties should never cease to address existential questions about themselves, about their identity and about the reason why they exist. Once they stop doing that, once they start seeing themselves as ‘the natural party' of whichever category of the electorate, they are bound to come to grief sooner or later.
Remain a broad church
Finally, UKIP. Of course, the UK’s electoral system was particularly punishing for them, with only one MP being elected, which did not reflect the wider support the Party enjoys. But this was a known fact while the Party was in a buoyant mood following its unexpected successes in the European Parliament election and in two by-elections in the past year.
The UK public’s view of their country’s EU membership may be more nuanced than UKIP’s categorical "No" on the matter. Eurosceptics are now complaining that the promised in/out referendum is more likely to say “in” if the call to charge for the exit is headed by UKIP and especially its leader, Nigel Farage.
Whatever its levels of popular support, the Party has become too divisive. It would be sweet irony if the very issue for which the Party was founded – exit from the EU – were to be scuttled because of the Party’s sectarian attitude. It is a reminder, even as we accuse mainstream parties of fudging issues, that it pays electorally to remain a broad church.
Clyde Puli is the Nationalist Party’s spokesman for Citizens’ Rights, Civil Rights, Equality, Social Dialogue, Consumers’ Rights, Internet Rights, Communications, Broadcasting and Audio-Visual Policy