The ‘Moviment’ which won so handsomely in March 2013 is a rare animal in Maltese political history.

It is the amalgam, carefully-structured, of different hues, origins and derivations which came together at one point in time to pursue a definite goal: the attainment of an electoral majority.

Then, as we all know, it overshot its target many times over. Its cohesion, once the objective was reached, has since then become rather frayed, although one would not say it has unravelled.

Let us try and analyse the ‘Moviment’.

At its centre there is, of course, the Labour Party, the Dom Mintoff core and grass roots, the red flag and the battle hymns and the cohesiveness that comes from so many battles fought together.

Mintoff’s MLP is still there. Its infrastructure is still there, with some notable holes now. The club structure is still there, so is the structure of the party committees and, above all, the old mentality, the fruit of so many battles in the past.

Flanked by the General Workers Union, this core is ageing but still has a power of attraction that at any point could bring out onto the streets massive crowds and, as we see at every election, young people otherwise apparently disinterested in politics.

To that, the party has lately added its television station and its radio. The loyalty of the party core ensures high numbers of viewers and listeners to the stations but I have come to doubt if the stations, especially the TV, really reflect the party outside election campaign time.

After the successive defeats in the 1990s and the 2000s, the party realised that its core was not enough to win it a majority. Hence Joseph Muscat’s creation – the Moviment, composed of voters who were either non-political, or moderate PN supporters most of the time (but easily attracted to switch), or who became so convinced Labour was about to win, as all the polls said, they hoped to negotiate for themselves a slice of the action.

To this one must add the middle-of-the-roaders who were sick and tired of the PN’s arrogance and its refusal to understand that Malta had changed, as was very clear in the divorce issue.

Not an issue was forgotten, no pocket of voters was thought to be surplus to requirements. So many commitments were made and they were punctually honoured, even when – in the end – they were deemed to have been excessive. I have in mind the commitment to relocate the Monti to City Gate, a commitment the present government is finding difficult to implement.

The present Cabinet reflects the hybrid character of the Moviment, although most ministers come from the MLP grass roots and history. There are ministers who have a long past inside the MLP and others who are newcomers. Some have the typical MLP approach, while others are more moderate and rational, although this time around there are, I feel, fewer who even try to build bridges to the other side.

Below parapet level – that is, unseen by many – there has been an almighty rush to get jobs, promotions and opportunities unlocked by the new administration and its way of doing things.

Time and time again, the Opposition’s questions, even if many of them remain unanswered, show not just the sheer number of people who acquired jobs but also how the present manning levels in ministries and departments is well in excess of what is needed, or of what there used to be.

There have been some decisions taken by the government as a whole, or by individual ministers, that have shocked people. Maybe by now some of those who voted for the Moviment in 2013 are having second thoughts.

One also hears grumbles from people in the core MLP grass roots who claim that their demands are not being met and/or that they have been overtaken by the new arrivals or the non-MLP core people.

But on the level of issues and general political outlines, the Muscat administration has largely remained loyal to what was promised in the election manifesto. So unless those who voted for Muscat have changed their mind in the space of two-and-a-half years, there is no real reason for them to regret their decision: they are getting the kind of government – and the decisions – for which they voted.

Even so, I am detecting a mood change that is not really ascribable to PN spin. Take the power outage on Thursday and the immediate clamour that arose from all sides and all shades of people – people are no longer prepared to give the government a chance to get something right, not after so many declarations in the past.

Take public transport, over which people are getting angry that, after so much spin against Arriva, things have not really become better: on the contrary, the service is more costly and the level of service has not improved.

Times have changed, too. Today’s world is no longer that of 2013. Malta’s needs today are no longer those of 2013. A close look at the issues that the Maltese consider as priorities could perhaps show new worries coming to the fore and a different scale of priorities.

To that one must add the general reaction to the Muscat government after two-and-a-half years. There have been too many issues, too many mistakes, too many cases crying ‘corruption’.

As time goes by, people are not really forgetting the PN’s mistakes and faults, but time is a healer and people react to the here and now.

In normal times, when a party, a real party not a loose amalgam or a Moviment, was in power, its supporters would understand that after the euphoria of victory, some things could emerge that needed pruning. But what would happen if there is not this solid basis to hold on to in times of stress?

Ask yourselves: who in the government can be said to represent the votes of the Moviment as different from the MLP votes? I would venture to say: Joseph Muscat and he alone – which explains his power.

So far, the polls tell us, he is still very popular and solidly supported by the electorate and by his electorate especially. It is when the attractiveness starts to wane that there will be trouble in the offing, because Muscat is the (only) glue that binds the Moviment together.

It is normally hard to keep a party united. In this case it is doubly hard to keep a Moviment together for it does not have the structures of a party nor the auto-discipline that goes with it. In the coming months, we shall see if the Moviment, which has versatility to its rafters, also has the resilience that is expected of a party.

Coming to the last half of Muscat’s first term there is a world of difference between this administration and Dom Mintoff’s first term. By this time, Mintoff had negotiated with the British, turned Malta into a republic and prepared the groundwork for what came later: the centralised economy, the new bodies such as Air Malta, etc., and Labour, hence its hubris, was running high.

There is nothing like this today. I am sure it is for our benefit but it should also sound worrying signals to the Muscat Moviment.

 

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