Over the last nine months, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) led by the Spanish diplomat Signor Bernardino Leon, has sponsored several rounds of political dialogue between Libya's political rivals in a bid to end the chaos in the country. A Political Accord has been reached. Libya's two main parties in the political dialogue; the General National Congress (GNC) and the internationally recognized House of Representatives (HoR) backed by rival militia groups, will have to vote on whether to accept the deal.
Chaos at midnight
Following a few days of tense anticipation and speculation, Signor Leon announced the names of the proposed National Unity administration in a midnight press conference (Thursday, 8th October) at Sikhirat in Morocco.
The conclusion of the Accord talks was received with general relief in the hope that it will end the four-year civil war and chaos, and restore stability and dignity to Libya. However, the list of ministerial nominees has unleashed a storm of anger and confusion and has provided the opponents of reconciliation with ammunition.
For a start, the appointments are the Parliament's prerogative and divulging them violated the legal guidelines the UN envoy helped to put together. The list is also biased. Politicians from Misurata have been over-represented and they come from one clan, a fact that smacks of nepotism. Many regions of Libya remain unrepresented, especially Benghazi, the second largest city in the country and the most devastated. The 'scandal' has sparked a row that has reverberated throughout the land.
There is no rational explanation for what Signor Leon did, except that he might have been suffering from fatigue and in a hurry to celebrate triumph. Many go as far as attributing the incident to "shock psychology". Whatever the reason, Leon has put his foot in it. A blunder that has embarrassed his Libyan allies.
Positive points
I once described Signor Leon as a diplomat magician. But magic is never perfect. And, anyway, you can never please everybody.
However, the choice of the proposed premier and his deputies has been realistic, and credible, even probably astute. The prime-minister-be is Mr Sarraj, an engineer from Tripoli. His three deputies are an ex-diplomat, an academic and a businessman. They also represent the three historic regions of Libya, namely Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and the Fezzan. The prospects are that they will form a harmonious open-minded work team with no connection with any armed group.
A blunder?
The candidate nominated to chair the Council of State is the most surprising; namely the firebrand Dr Swaihli. He has a chequered political career as a political co-leader of Fajr, a radical Islamic-leaning Militia that controls Tripoli. His image has been rather tarnished as he was linked to an ill-starred invasion of Ben Walid in 2012, the burning down of Tripoli's international airport and atrocities against the Warshafana who inhabit the rural hinterland of the capital Tripoli. But the fact that he participated in the reconciliation process was surely a good omen. Presumably, the UN team saw in him a leader who could control the militias who would safeguard the new Government of National Unity. Anyway, Swaihli refused the post although one cannot say for sure whether his decision is final or tactical. After all, accepting high positions in today's Libya is hazardous and fraught with risks. Besides, he and others who have accepted posts will face the difficult task of sorting it out with their previous allies.
Regardless of all these details, most Libyans, and certainly the politicians, welcome the accord as the only way to surmount the futile strife that has caused so much hardship and misery, and which has paralysed the country's economy and basic services.
The dissatisfied
The Political Accord that has been worked out threatens many powerful figures with immediate dismissal, one being General Khalifa Hefter, a powerful ally of the legitimate Parliament in Tobrug and its government based in Baida. However, by not involving such figures the Leonean process is seriously threatened. Gen. Hefter has indicated that his Army is not concerned with politics. But some predict that he may declare a ruling military council in the east of Libya (Cyrenaica) if the Accord fails and an Islamic republic is established in Tripoli. A war would then flare up across the oil-rich central desert divide.
One can only be pleased with what has been achieved so far to bring peace to Libya. But it is too early to be sure. The fragility of the success combined with the size of looming threats makes one wary of giving a confident prediction of coming developments.
The hardest bit
So far both parliaments are split over accepting the Accord. The NGC, strictly speaking with no constitutional foundation and not internationally recognized, is procrastinating over signing the Accord and probably playing a devious game.
On 20 October, the term of the legitimate Parliament ends and a constitutional vacuum may arise. The consequences may be dire and the political process may simply implode.
In the meantime, politicians keep waffling on in vague non-committal language and giving promises. Signor Leon continues to explain and coax.
On the other hand, the UN Security Council has since passed Resolution 2240, calling on member states "... acting nationally or through regional organizations, including the EU, to assist Libya, upon request, in building needed capacity including to secure its borders and to prevent, investigate and prosecute acts of smuggling of migrants and human trafficking through its territory and in its territorial sea; in order to prevent the further proliferation of, and endangerment of lives by the smuggling of migrants and human trafficking into, through and from the territory of Libya and off its coast..". But some consider the resolution a recipe for military intervention by world powers?
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