The Malta Independent 9 June 2025, Monday
View E-Paper

Weak inflation puts European Central Bank in tight spot at Malta meeting

Monday, 19 October 2015, 09:54 Last update: about 11 years ago

Falling prices in the euro zone are turning up the heat on the European Central Bank to prevent the single currency area from slipping into a dangerous downward spiral of deflation.

But many ECB watchers say they do not expect the guardian of the euro to take any action just yet when its decision-making governing council convenes in Malta this week.

Consumer prices in the euro zone slipped by 0.1% in September, according to data published by Eurostat.

That “heaps pressure on the ECB to step up its stimulative action at its meeting” on Thursday, said IHS Global Insight analyst Howard Archer.

With area-wide interest rates currently at what ECB chief Mario Draghi perceives to be their lower end, any additional easing action would likely take the form of an extension of the central bank’s bond purchase programme, known as quantitative easing or QE, the expert said.

“But it looks most likely that the ECB will hold fire on more QE, as a number of governing council members appear to be in ‘wait and see’ mood,” Archer said.

A number of top ECB policymakers, including Draghi himself, have recently insisted it is too early to judge whether further action is needed.

Also by December the ECB will have compiled its own new staff forecasts, which could well bolster the case for more stimulus.

“Recent comments from governing council members suggest that the ECB may not be ready to increase its policy support when it meets” in Malta, said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics.

But Draghi would likely reiterate concerns about the inflation outlook and risks from emerging markets, stressing again that the ECB was ready to do more if needed.

“We still see it announcing a pick-up in the pace of its asset purchases before long, if not at this meeting then perhaps following the December meeting,” McKeown said.

 

  • don't miss