The UK is shaping up for a referendum to be held in June which will either see it continue to be an active and contributing member of the European Union, or to see it leave completely.

The implications on the EU have already been made clear by EU President Donald Tusk, who said that such an exit could have catastrophic effects on the EU, both in terms of diplomatic and military clout, trade and London’s financial district. But there are other fears. Mr Tusk expressed great worry that the UK leaving the EU could lead to a slow haemorrhage of other states invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.

Worse yet, he fears that it could lead to the union falling apart, and very quickly. It is not the purpose of this article to delve into what can, will or will not happen. The UK has very clearly marked it posts. Prime Minister David Cameron and his government have made the case for the UK to remain within the EU under the newly negotiated deal in Brussels last month which saw greater autonomy for the UK in dealing with benefit claims from EU citizens, as well as other matters which, peculiar to the British, were deemed to be of paramount importance.

Even more strangely (and it could be backroom politics) new Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has backed down from his EU-skeptic stance and has urged supporters to vote for the UK to ‘remain’ in the EU.

The UKIP and other sceptics, frotned by Farage and a few other familiar faces, are no doubt jumping on the scaremongering train, trying to capitalise on the collapse of the Lib Dems and UKIP’s good performance (in terms of votes not seats) in the last UK general election. Not much hope for a ‘leave’ vote then.

But then, you have to factor in flamboyant and popular mayor of London Boris Johnson, who together with government cabinet member Michael Gove are rapidly becoming the frontmen for the leave campaign. Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, has already signalled his support for a breakaway from the EU.

Work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith is expected to join Grayling as well as employment minister Priti Patel. Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers and culture secretary John Whittingdale are two other cabinet ministers thought to be behind 'leave'.

So where does the ‘same but different come in?’ Hark back to the heady years of the late 1990s and early millennium in Malta, and just think of the divisive campaign which surrounded Malta’s accession (or not) to the European Union. Malta has since become a fully fledged member of the EU and successive governments have all backed membership to the hilt. But remember the divisiveness? The polarisation? The fights between families? That might all unfold in the Uk’s referendum campaign? Why? Because it is an island nation with a polarised parliament system.

It is no secret that Boris Johnson wants to be Prime Minister. Eton boys become Eton men and Eton men all want to, at some point in their lives, be in one of the houses in Downing Street. Johnson will go full tilt in the campaign, and though he is likely to face off and clash with David Cameron, once the vote is put to bed and the result is out, then they will be back to being friends. Cameron has stated that he does not want to see k another term as Prime Minister, and this could be just the profile raising campaign that Johnson is looking for.