The Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, Martin Kobler was in Malta yesterday for a meeting with Foreign Minister George W. Vella before a pan European meeting to further discuss the fast unravelling situation.

Last week, Libya was branded a failed state by the US’ top general in Africa, Army General David Rodriguez, who testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Yesterday, Mr Kobler said that Islamic State presence was growing by the day and that there needs to be an immediate transfer of power to a national unity government to tackle the situation.

Foreign Minister George Vella reiterated one of countless warnings he has already made, saying that things in Libya are close to the point of no return.  He too pressed the Libyans to reach an agreement to install a national unity government.

Time and time again, the world was told that the two sides – one internationally backed, and the other based in Tripoli – were close to reaching agreement. And each time, the house of cards comes tumbling down.

Things in North Africa – not too far away from here – are not looking good. Although an EU mission is patrolling the frontlines of the Southern Mediterranean, eyes and assets are increasingly being deployed East to try and stem the human toll that leaves from mainland Turkey in the hope of reaching the Greek Islands. Every day, we hear of more deaths.

But as the world looks at Syria, the Islamic State presence in Libya continues to foment and grow. The West has again been caught cold in the face of North African procrastination. Tunisia, the cradle of the Arab Spring continues to be terrified by the prospects of invasions across its sandy desert borders by IS operatives (some home grown) which attack desolate towns.

Europe has again lulled itself into a false sense of security after the last wave of attacks in France which left 130 people dead in November last year.

Malta has also been lulled into a false sense of security in terms of migrant arrivals. While there are thousands of Libyans who are trying to sit out their homeland’s troubles in Malta, there are millions more who are at risk of a failed state. Another Somalia. Another Syria. If things in Libya were to worsen to the point where they too take to boats to flee, Malta would once again be right on the frontline of migrant arrivals. Just as they leave Turkey in droves, they will also leave Libya in droves.

This is not a hypothesis. We saw the sub Saharan migration phenomenon unfold before our very eyes. But if things degenerate to the point that they have in Syria, thousands of Libyans will take to those very same rickety fishing boats and try their luck in getting to Southern Europe. That is the situation that Europe’s southern frontiers face and no amount of ignoring the warning signs will help. Are we ready to cope? Or more importantly, is anyone in Southern Europe prepared to cope? Is the safety mechanism in place to help deal with such a situation in terms of burden sharing?

Libya might yet surprise us all and find a political solution. While the tribes are divided, they could yet come together, but will it be too little and too late?