Throughout history, boats have played a crucial role in restoring dynasties, establishing political regimes, or promulgating decades of colonisation, and the Barbary Coast of North Africa has a rich history in this respect.
On 30th March, Libyan Prime Minister-designate Fayez al-Saraj and his Council arrived in Tripoli by boat from Tunisia – an audacious move no doubt intended to assert authority and replace the incumbent Islamic-leaning government. .
The political situation remains confused, theatrical and open to various ominous developments. Most Libyans – and certainly the residents of the capital, Tripoli – are relieved and optimistic in their support for al-Saraj’s move, while analysts speculate as to what is going to happen next.
Now that al-Saraj’s Consensus Government (CG) – a creature of the UN mediation effort – has set foot on Libyan soil, it is in a stronger position and is able to call on military support from EU navies offshore. On its first day in business inside Libya, the CG has already received the governor of the Central Bank and members of the Tripoli-based National Congress, whose Speaker, Nouri Abusahmain, opposes the CG.
International – especially European – support will certainly deter opponents from attacking the naval base on the beach, close to the Radisson Mahary Hotel. The angry militias could incapacitate the CG by laying siege, but nothing of the sort has materialised so far. Mediators are already working to diffuse the situation and possibly guarantee a safe passage for those who have hindered or opposed the Libyan Political Accord, which gave birth to the new CG. But more aggressive tactics by radical militia elements cannot be ruled out.
Whatever the immediate outcome, al-Saraj has proved himself as a man who keeps his promises and his latest adventures have been met with some admiration. During the Easter Weekend, he and his Presidium made two obstinate – even reckless – attempts to fly into Tripoli from Tunisia. These were aborted by the closure of Libya’s airspace, a response that suggested some common sense, or even political acumen, on the part of the militias who clearly wanted to avert a bloody confrontation with the UN-backed government.
Indeed, on the same day of the al-Saraj docking, the UN’s Commissioner in Istanbul Martin Kobler met Hakim Belhaj, the leader of the Muqatila militias in Libya who controls the present Tripoli airport (originally the American Wheelus base for three decades following WWII). Afterwards, Belhaj said that they discussed how to “contain the situation in Tripoli and prevent any deterioration in security”. Mr Belhaj was, at one time, arrested by the CIA in Thailand and handed over to the Gaddafi government who jailed him for several years. Thus, it seems that things are going smoothly for al-Saraj so far, but his administration will be plagued by many problems other than security.
Constitutionally speaking
To become constitutionally legal, the CG requires the amendment of the post-Gaddafi Constitutional Declaration as well as accreditation by the only legitimate constitutional body, namely the Tobruk Parliament which is procrastinating, and “could not” reach a quorum in five consecutive sessions. Both steps have been deemed unnecessary by Mr Kobler, who declared publically that the Unity Government was like an ambulance that had to move quickly for the sake of the patient inside, although it had no licence or number plates. Regardless of this impish sense of humour, a compromise with the Parliament is needed for other reasons, namely to maintain the country’s unity.
Al-Saraj also remains captive to unworkable procedures for ministerial selection and appointment, as well as decision-taking in the Presidium, which is supposed to require a unanimous – and not merely majority – vote. However, the Presidium members seem to be rapidly acquiring a welcome comradeship.
The Hefter factor
The Parliament is closely linked with, or subservient to the growing power of the army of General Khalifa Hefter in the east of Libya or Cyrenaica. Hefter, a man in his mid-seventies, has been fighting militias – especially in Benghazi – and as such has won the support of the city’s population. The death toll and devastation has been horrific.
However, his long-term ambitions are suspected by many – including Western governments and many leading politicians in Tripolitania. After his election, al-Saraj was astute enough to visit the General, since a dissatisfied Hefter could precipitate the split of Libya with disastrous consequences. In one sense, Hefter has to be seen as the custodian of Libyan unity, however paradoxical this may sound.
Reconcile and divide
The roots of recent Libyan discord are many. One of them, in my opinion, has been the performance of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) team that has overseen the so-called ‘Libyan Dialogue for Reconciliation’. UNSMIL has been inflexible and elite-oriented. The selection of the dialogue team, for example, can only be described as biased or even capricious. Political leaders with influence in their areas were excluded, as were the commanders of armed groups who have been branded terrorists, but whose presence cannot be overlooked.
To the errors of selection should be added blunders of discretion. The previous UN mediator, Bernadino Leon, actually divulged the names of nominated cabinet members, thus humiliating the Parliament that was supposed to appoint them. And in seeking to install al-Saraj, Martin Kobler has trampled on the political accord.
What is even worse is the fact that the political process has been restricted to endless discussions behind closed doors in various capitals, with no effort to initiate any parallel measures to diffuse the prevalent social and economic distress, such as rehabilitating displaced populations in areas unaffected by fighting or securing the flow of Oil.
Longing for peace
Despite all these shortcomings, the exhausted Libyans – who have suffered every form of hardship over the last two years of civil war – have also shown patience and a willingness to overlook such failings for the sake of a government that can provide services – from food to schools – and can establish security and control inflation.
Depending on the new administration’s success or failure to deliver, worse scenarios remain a threat. My brother, Hamada, recently told me that Libya’s present situation reminded him of a line by the deceased satirical Libyan writer Sadeq Naihoom, who described a rat perched on a piece of cheese in the middle of the sea. Either way, the rat will die – whether it eats the cheese or stays put. Therein lies the current Libyan dilemma.
Finally, I am always amazed by the seemingly wise calls of analysts and politicians for the confiscation of weapons now in the hands of militias or other groups – be they tribal or criminal. No one suggests how this could be done, except by further fighting. And, even worse, some even demand the dissolution of militias: another impossible dream.
Guns, unfortunately, tend to embolden or even delude people into a sense of false power that makes them think they are stronger than their enemies. Animals are wiser, as Konrad Lorenz has taught us. Some of those with arms may triumph, of course. Some human conflicts die out due to exhaustion and depletion of resources. In many other wars, the only way out is step-by-step ceasefire and negotiations, first to instil an element of mutual trust and acquaintance. Again, check Konrad Lorenz.
With the arrival of the CG in Tripoli, tensions have rapidly subsided. It is true that, when it comes to war, cities cannot endure for long anyway. But Tripolitanians must be given credit for their willingness to compromise, always putting the interests of their city first. And for now, al-Saraj can concentrate on infusing an atmosphere of prosperity into the rather bleak Libyan socio-economic landscape. The final restoration of peace and the norms of civilised life remain a distant goal, while the hurdles to come will be even more demanding.