It was The Guardian, which is firmly in the Remain camp, which announced this week that a poll it commissioned shows that the Brexit camp has surged ahead in the UK.
Up till then, the Remain camp had been in the lead as people seemed to listen to the economic arguments which say that Britain will be worse off outside the EU.
But then the immigration argument, which strictly speaking has nothing to do with the subject matter of the 23 June referendum, took over and suddenly Brexit became not just possible but also probable.
There is still a considerable portion of the British electorate that is undecided, so all options are possible. It may be that, just as happened to the Scots in their independence referendum last year, they will be bullied and scared stiff of trying it out on their own (the pressures that came with banks threatening to pull out) and in the end choose to remain. But I doubt it.
There is a tremendous surge of nationalistic enthusiasm in England at the moment – Jerusalem playing on the radio, the Queen’s 90th official birthday celebrations falling nicely in the week ahead of the referendum. These are not, at least ostensibly, part of the Brexit campaign (and The Sun was condemned by the Palace for daring to suggest the Queen is pro Brexit) but reminiscing about the glory days of the British Empire and the reassertion of links to the Commonwealth countries all go to show that Britain can make it on its own, without being part of the EU.
But what seems so far to have turned tables on the predictions is the immigration argument. ”We could not win without immigration,” the Financial Times quoted one senior official as saying. Britain must regain control of its borders, so runs the argument. What irks public opinion (as against, for instance the one in Malta) are not the millions of Pakistanis, Indians and radicalized Muslims many of who go to fight alongside Isis, but the migrants from EU countries – the Poles, the Irish, the Rumanians – who enjoy freedom of movement.
There are two problems here: these Community migrants work, pay their taxes and are not usually a burden on the British social security system. And they mostly take up jobs the British do not want. Secondly, the Brits are scared stiff not so much because of any present situation but by what can yet happen, and might not. It is not so well known, for instance, that any future expansion of the EU must be approved by all member states, many times through a referendum. And as regards future membership of Turkey in the EU, that is so far in the future as to be not relevant today.
There are parts of Britain that are multicultural – and London, perhaps the most, recently confirmed its multiculturalism by electing a Muslim mayor. And London is the region which, broadly speaking is in favour of Remain. But the other parts of the country – the Home Counties for instance – are less multicultural and thus for Brexit.
Whatever the Brits will decide on the 23rd, and the impact of this decision on the British economy and way of life, even more important, and possibly farther-reaching, will be the impact on the rest of Europe, especially if, as the predictions seem to show, it will be Brexit that wins the day.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said yesterday that if the Brenner Pass (between Italy and Austria) is blocked, that is the end of Europe. She could well have said that if the Brits vote Brexit that will be the end of Europe.
On the one hand, a Brexit success will fuel all the Eurosceptics in Europe, from Marine Le Pen in France to AfD in Germany, to Podemos in Spain, to Syriza in Greece to M5S in Italy and all the rest. Europe is coming up to a season of elections, beginning with Spain’s re-run just three days after the British referendum. The domino impact will be tremendous.
On the other hand, a Brexit result may have an unplanned impact on the UK itself. Northern Ireland, which will have to re-establish border posts with Ireland, will suffer. The Scots may be persuaded to have another go at independence. And London with all its financial services will have a different scenario than the rest of England.
For all the scare stories that David Cameron has been spreading as to the economic impact of a Brexit, it is in the economic field that the impact of Brexit is at its most imponderable. It will be over a rather long period while negotiations are held and trade treaties drawn up and signed that one will see, in time, the final outcome.
It is easy to predict that the remaining 27, and especially the countries in the eurozone, will take immediate steps to boost their alliance by means of a greater union. Malta will inevitably find itself immersed in this centralizing stream, whether that is to its advantage or not.
But even in the rest of Europe, the issue which can be the breaking point in the UK – immigration – may well prove to be equally divisive. One can follow a riveting series of articles in the Financial Times how Germany, with Teutonic rigour, is trying to accommodate the million plus immigrants it took on last year. Other countries such as Hungary and Slovakia are taking the exact contrary tack. If Brexit were to win, it will be because the British government refused to hear the insistent appeal to adopt the Australian points system to sift immigrants.
Along with the Brexit referendum, the coming elections in Europe will give this issue a deeper airing.
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