The election of Chris Cardona as deputy leader of the Malta Labour Party was written on the wall. What is surprising is the number of votes that Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi obtained despite the fact that he had a less aggressive campaign, kept a low profile and had no media coverage. The other two contestants relied on expensive campaigns. Zrinzo Azzopardi went for old style politics and relied on his family. He campaigned with his wife while his father’s lobbying among the Labour delegates was instrumental for this positive result.

Joseph Muscat stayed aloof this time and, unlike in the previous choice of Konrad Mizzi, he did not throw his weight in favour of any one of the three candidates. The reason for Muscat’s position is very clear. The PL is now split into two or more factions. The first faction is made up of the old guard. Cardona’s strong political verbosity was music to the ear for the Labour delegates. He appeared a guarantor listening to their pleas and woes. Old Labourites are extremely angry about the privileged manner in which Muscat is treating the people that form “il-Moviment” meaning the Nationalist switchers who voted Labour in the last general election.

This came out very clearly during Chris Cardona's campaign. A number of MPs talked openly about the dilemma of Labour voters. Anger is now being openly manifested. The number of delegates and party supporters who attended the rally organized on Thursday, on the eve of the election, was low, despite the fact that Muscat also addressed the rally.

The defeated candidate, Owen Bonnici, is doing extremely good work in the field of culture and justice but still, this was not enough to secure him the post of deputy leader.

Moreover, I think that Bonnici made a tactical mistake. While asking Godfrey Grima to give a testimonial in his favour was extremely positive, the choice of Ian Castaldi Paris backfired heavily.  Godfrey Grima made the strongest argument or testimonial I heard throughout this campaign as to why delegates should elect a particular candidate, in this case Bonnici. It should be pointed out that Grima is from Zejtun and his father was one of the founding fathers of the Labour Party. This is a historical fact, which today is not known by many, but cherished by Labour's old guard. Asking for a testimonial from Ian Castaldi Paris was a grave mistake. The delegates are in revolt against these types of switchers whom the French would call parvenus. His testimonial only angered further those delegates who are at war with Il-Moviment faction.

Judging from the photos and films published of the rallies held by Cardona and Bonnici, most of those present were aged over fifty. Cardona avoided to give relevance to the ex-Nationalists who had joined Labour and were behind his election. The only testimonial he got was from Deborah Schembri but still, he kept her participation at a low profile so as not to offend the old Labour core.

This situation explains why Joseph Muscat is speaking about the need for the party to build bridges. The first bridges that need to be built are within the Labour Party itself.  

Still Muscat knows that, while on a party level, the advantage that Labour has on the PN has now dwindled to 1%, he can still count on his personal popularity vis-à-vis Simon Busuttil to maintain his forceful control on the party. It is only this overall popularity that is keeping him strong and will stop his Party from foundering. Time will tell if Cardona’s choice will help him to hang on to this advantage over the Leader of the Opposition or not.

Therefore, if one takes the last general election where a 12-point difference meant a victory of 36,000, a one-point difference will mean that Labour has today a marginal advantage of 3,000 votes over the PN. The Labour majority has shrunk in three years but worse, there are still two years to go before the scheduled election.

While it is true that this Government is more than half way into this legislature, it is also true that there are about 30% of the electorate who are undecided or do not want to pronounce themselves. Normally, in election time, this percentage would be divided proportionally amongst all the parties contesting the election.

But problems are not over for Labour. About 10% of the traditional Labour voters are nowadays candidly stating that they are not ready to go out and vote in the next election. It is this type of Labour voter who kept the party for fifteen years in opposition after being disillusioned by Sant’s government between 1996 and 1998.

Clearly, Labour is not in a position to increase the number of absolute votes in the coming election. On the contrary, it will be experiencing a sharp decrease. For this reason, I agree with Godfrey Grima that the best candidate to address the dwindling support for the Labour Party was Owen Bonnici.

But there is no doubt that the best candidate who can change the mood among that 10% of Labour electorate and convince them to go out and vote is Chris Cardona. His flamboyant political statements will definitely help to inflame this section of lukewarm Labour voters. But would this be enough to stop this haemorrhage within Labour? I doubt it.

In the second turn, Zrinzo Azzopardi’s voters preferred Cardona over Bonnici. Their preference was because Cardona had the strongest message to the traditional Labour voter.

This internal election has proved one thing. Five years after the divorce campaign, the family is once again at the forefront of the political campaign. Therefore, whether one likes it or not, the conservative voter is returning and will be making its voice heard. Ironically enough, this has started from a quarter the least expected, the Labour Party.