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An EU-UK agreement is possible

Roderick Pace Friday, 1 July 2016, 09:11 Last update: about 11 years ago

A friend remarked that the only politician who is left standing in the UK is Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon. The EU seems just as confused on what the next steps should be after the referendum.

Things cannot move forward in a definite way until the UK settles its political problems, which start in the Conservative party’s search for a leader to replace Cameron. I will not be at all surprised if an outsider manages to outrun Boris Johnson whose populist, often untrue messages during the referendum campaign have already began to catch up with him.

The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn is politically inept and his fighting stance to recontest the leadership, if he is voted out by his parliamentary group, may split Labour in two. It happened in the past, there is no reason why it cannot happen again.

As for the EU, I think it makes sense to follow the advice given by Peter Altmaier, head of the German chancellery, who was quoted as saying by RND, a German newspaper group that it is important to give the UK politicians sufficient time to think through the consequences of leaving the EU.

Boris Johnson writing in the Daily Telegraph has said that the UK can now conclude a free trade agreement with the EU and a partnership with access to the single market.  He added that Britain would also be able to do free trade deals with growth economies outside the EU.

He favours free movement claiming that EU citizens in Britain would have their rights protected, as would British citizens living in the EU, while British people would still be able to go and work, live and travel in the EU. Johnson claims that there would still be "intense" cooperation between the UK and the EU on arts, science and the environment.

While speaking to the British people about the shape of their country’s future relationship with the EU, Johnson has exhibited a talent rivalling John Constable’s. But in reality what is eventually written in the new relationship does not depend on his dreams, but on the EU. Boris Johnson can paint to his heart’s content, but in the end it is what the member states decide to accept or reject that sticks. A painting is a painting. A treaty is something else.

Britain is not in a good negotiating position to dictate the terms and with Johnson at the head of its government that weak position will be debilitated further.

Boris Johnson wants the UK to still be part of the single market with the free movement of goods, capital, services and EU citizens, but with controls on third country nationals. That might just be possible even according to current rules. In return the UK will still have to keep and implement an estimated 80 per cent or more of EU laws.

He does not want the UK to be subjected to the “opaque” European Court of Justice but I do not think that that is to its advantage. Where do businesses or individuals turn to when their internal market rights have been violated?

The major change would be that the UK will not deliberate or participate in any future changes in the laws which it will have to implement. Britain will be asked to pay into the EU budget, just as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland do, because it cannot take advantage of the internal market without doing as the rest of us do and pay into the EU budget.

But I am sure that this will not be a problem. Nor would it be a problem for Prime Minister Johnson to pay for the EU programs such as ERASMUS, COST and others in which the UK would want to participate. Of course it will not be sitting with the “Board of Directors” when these programs are changed and reshaped.

On international trade the EU will only be happy to surrender this area to the UK. First the UK will have to renounce all the agreements which the EU has with practically the rest of the world and which provide advantageous access to global markets for all the member states including the UK. Then Britain will start negotiating its own bilateral agreements with each of the members of the world community – some 170 countries more or less if you leave out the EU member states.

The speed with which this enterprise is concluded will depend on several factors including the willingness of the other countries to hastily conclude the negotiations. The choice of negotiating tactic is also important i.e. whether to start with China and India, Brazil and the USA or with Tuvalu because this would be easier to conclude and get out of the way. Both have their advantages and disadvantages.

Border controls between the EU and Britain will have to be strictly imposed because of trade deflection, whereby goods and services entering the UK from the rest of the world may do so under more lenient tariff conditions than if they enter the EU. The EU will have to ensure that no backdoor entry undermines her trade policy. Border controls stifle EU trade in both directions and raises costs.

UK-based operators will grumble, but a solution is possible. They will locate on this side of the Channel and travel back home on the weekends.

Otto Von Bismarck is credited with saying that politics is the art of the possible, i.e. what is attainable, is often the next best. The laws of politics change very slowly and Brexit will hardly dent them. Let’s wait and see.

 

The views expressed are my personal ones and do not reflect those of the Institute for European Studies

 

Roderick Pace is the Director of the Jean Monnet Professor Institute for European Studies at the University of Malta

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