Right or wrong, the Brexit referendum has huge historical significance for Britain (and maybe also for the EU).

It is true that the referendum had only consultative power and needs to be confirmed by the House of Commons but it is difficult (as we saw on the divorce vote) for a Parliament to disregard what the people have said in the referendum.

Sooner or later, therefore, the new prime minister must push the Article 50 button and the negotiations will begin.

The question is how will the British future relations with the EU be structured.

Going by what was said in the referendum, it would seem the British would want to have membership in the European Economic Area. The EEA is a single market that provides for the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital through three of the four member states of the European Free Trade Association  – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway – and all 28 member states of the European Union.

But as this indicates, for Britain to benefit from EEA tax implications, the UK has to accept free movement of people.

It will be hard for the British government to accept this as blocking the free movement of persons from other EU states was one of the principal planks of the Brexit campaign.

If, at that point in the discussions, the British say they cannot renege on the Brexit promise to the people, then the trade relations with Britain will have to go to a lower notch, the WTO level. The UK will then have to establish trade relations with each of the EU’s 27 countries.

Take Switzerland, for example. In February 2014 the Swiss voted narrowly for quotas on EU immigration — in direct contradiction with the EU’s cherished principle of the free movement of people across the continent. A three-year deadline for implementing the 2014 referendum result expires next February.

Then again, UK Brexiters might in any case object to the way Switzerland pays into EU programmes and has to adopt many of the bloc’s rules — without having any say over them.

But with Switzerland formally abandoning its goal to join the EU, Brussels has refused to deepen ties any further until the country has signed up to a broader deal to adopt EU rules as they evolve. Swiss voters would almost certainly reject any agreement to obey rulings of the European Court of Justice.

If Bern also reneges on the principle of free movement of people, many of the most important existing bilateral deals with the EU could also become void.

In the coming negotiations the EU has ample reason for being hard – it does not want to encourage other member states to leave the EU.

But the UK is no Switzerland. The economic importance of Britain is far greater than that of Switzerland. It may thus be that Britain may coalesce around it countries such as Switzerland to put pressure on the EU to accept a better deal.

These things, however, take time and meanwhile the UK would be out of the EU. The EU has held steadfast to the principle the UK must first get out and then negotiate from outside.

To get back to Switzerland, Already, the stand-off has cast doubt over the future participation of Swiss universities in European research projects. To the dismay of Swiss banks, talks have been shelved on a financial services agreement.