Discussions taking place around the EU Presidency which include immigration on the agenda, are rather like the froth over a cold beer, failing to deal with the reality taking place on the shores of Libya, its hinterland and the Middle East and thereby ignoring the real depths of the problem situated on Malta’s doorstep.

Before the issue of how to deal with immigration across the Mediterranean is debated, it would be sensible to start with a study of the current military and political situation in Libya, and Malta’s position and role as that country’s neighbour and receiver of thousands of Libyan nationals, arriving through regular and irregular channels.

Many Libyans in Malta have their visa and we are still waiting for the report on the alleged medical visa racket which saw thousands of applicants receive a medical visa through irregular procedures. 

This week too saw three Maltese companies – one owned by a Maltese who claims to not be informed of any ban on trading and the other two owned by a Libyan residing in Tripoli –  banned from doing business in Libya.  According to the Audit Bureau in Libya, they claim that money was being smuggled out through Libyan companies acting as importers. They opened letters of credit in favour of the foreign companies, including the Maltese ones, which acted as exporters.

Like all things in Libya and Malta, these activities – the visa scandal and the money smuggling – are just the tip of the iceberg and it can be suspected that virtual other dealings take place on a regular basis, appearing to be quite sanitised but which are in fact a cover for a rather lucrative and dangerous underworld.

All of which may or may not be of interest to anyone other than the Maltese government were it not for the fact that Russia is now knocking on the door of General Khalifa Haftar who almost single-handedly has been waging a war on Islamists in Libya, as well as its other rivals in the region.  Haftar backs and essentially controls the government in the eastern city of Tobruk.  The Tobruk government is supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, and now, apparently, by Russia.

Haftar and the Russians have been courting one another for months now. In November, Haftar made a trip to Russia, meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. At the time, Russia was noncommittal, although an exchange of arms for Russian military access in Libya was allegedly discussed. In December, Russian officials said Haftar should have a national leadership role in the country.  Russia’s increased involvement in Libya is another sign that President Vladimir Putin seeks a resurgent Russia that holds sway with allies throughout the Middle East.

This week it was reported that the city of Ganfouda near Benghazi has finally been cleared of Islamic militants after months of laying a tight siege on the area. 

What Haftar is engaging in on behalf of his country is not under discussion here.  But the intrusion of Russia into the picture does have implications for Malta and Europe.

If Haftar does eventually rise to power with Russia’s help, Russia would have a strategic alliance in the region and increased sway there. The battles have left Benghazi — Libya’s second-largest city — in ruins but Hafter’s popularity has surged.   Russia, of course, wants to reclaim the influence it held in the Middle East and North Africa throughout much of the Cold War. This would be a major step toward its goal to take America’s place as the primary power broker in the region.

When it comes to Russia, Donald Trump seems keen to stress his America First policy even in relation to foreign policy.  His belief that Russia is not a threat to America, or its interests abroad, or the sovereignty of other nations, although in conflict with his defence secretary’s views, show little eagerness on his part to pursue any meaningful opposition to Putin’s intrusions.

On its part, Europe has been muddling through this immigration crisis like the father of the bride.  Flustered, proud, welcoming the spouse but reluctant to hand over his baby girl and generally wary of the bill to come at the end of the wedding.  The whole of the Middle East remains a largely unknown quantity for Europe’s leaders who up to now had only some self-interest around the region – more so following  Brexit - and had no qualms with most of the wealth coming their way from the Gulf.  Now that we are dealing with humans rather than barrels of oil, the situation has found Europe uncoordinated, unwilling in the most part and amateurish and naive on the other, to handle both the humanitarian and the political consequences.

Perhaps, finding themselves located for the next six months on our island, situated so close to Libya and Egypt for that matter, from where they can get a sense of the proximity of the source of this problem, perspectives will begin to shift.  First they will grasp that Malta has to investigate and properly assess its conventions and agreements with the governments of Libya and where these are leading to abuse.  Secondly, they cannot ignore the threat of Russia taking a strong role in the affairs of Libya and their increased presence in the Mediterranean.

As happened in Syria, it is very difficult to oppose any fight that will lead to the eradication of ISIS in north Africa but they have now enough experience from the same Syrian stage to realise that nothing that Russia does fighting terrorists is just that and that the battle against ISIS serves a much wider purpose.  Recent incidents also point to the fact that the fight against the Islamic militants is manipulated in favour of third party battles for power.

At the very least, with the new flow of arms into the Libyan National Army, more fights will be waged, more terrorists will need to flee and more people will seek safe refuge from the possibility of fighting around them.  It is safe to say their first port of call will be Malta.

The issue of whether to arm anti-ISIS fighters, or insurgents, has always been at the back of concern to not escalate fighting in the area.  It also leaves the window open for Russia to supply those arms and take the lead in a fight that already exists.  Through these proxy wars it has been able to realign itself as a power house, now right on the doorstep of Europe. 

Who will now be pouring in to Malta?  How many of the visa applications and Individual Investor Programme applicants for citizenship of Malta are legitimate?  Malta is already quite the new Sochi for Russians, a place of transient abode with their eyes set on much more interesting European cities.  Unfortunately for them Brexit has put a spoke in the wheel but they will learn to find other residences around the European capitals soon enough.  Will the Russian aircraft carriers be needing to refuel in Benghazi or Valletta?What position have we taken in this regard?

Most of all, the issue of security and long term foreign policy for Europe has to be part of any future negotiations amongst its members.  Our country too needs to urgently review its relations with Libya and inform our citizens of where they stand.  The reality of fleeing terrorists, running from the fight on them, cannot be underestimated.  The staging of some attack on Malta, must be considered as a possibility, especially with the Presidency going on now and in retaliation to the Russian backing of Haftar.

We should not only look to external borders to provide security.  Internal security is essential to prevent any threat already among us. That does not mean closing the doors on the refugees making the perilous crossing by sea but this reality has to be put into the new context.

Certainly, the deportation of the nine Malian men is ridiculous – though not for them - and so phoney that one despairs.  What utter failure to live up to common decency and intelligent conduct on the part of the government of Malta.  And what a silly, childish attempt at trying to distract people from the real threat on our doorstep.

A hungry goatherd from sub-Saharan Africa is hardly the problem here.  Those who carry arms and use them with disregard for the international order are rather more dangerous.

International order is the system we have in place to keep a hold on security for the world.  We cannot afford to ignore the conflict around us.