There is no doubt that had the Panama Papers scandal surfaced in any other European country, it would have rocked the government and forced it to resign. One needs only watch what is happening in France, where the favourite Conservative candidate for the French Presidential election, François Fillon, is losing his bid because of the presumed fictitious employment of his wife.

In Malta, this type of situation is now a normal occurrence. We have had ministers employing their wives with government and, in one recent case, a minister’s wife ended up working in her husband’s ministry. This stirred up mild criticism but it did not create any political earthquake as is happening in France even if, in theory, the reasons in France are different though in essence they are the same. We are here discussing presumed political abuse.

In our case, the Prime Minister has decided to retain Konrad Mizzi as Minister, only nominally changing his title. The same holds for Keith Schembri. The fact that, despite the Panama Papers, the Prime Minister has kept them both at their posts, implies that he owes them something. One could be led to believe that they have information with which he could be politically blackmailed. This is plausible. However, the true reasons will only be known in the future. It is now confirmed that Dom Mintoff kept on Lorry Sant as minister, despite all the scandals that happened under his watch, because Sant knew too much about Mintoff.

During the last months, much has been bandied about the identity of the mysterious individual behind Egrant. Fingers were pointed at the Prime Minister and his wife. Dr Muscat has denied that he owns the infamous company, which Nexia BT insists (as of recently) is only a shell company. Whoever owns this company - albeit still resting on the shelves - is definitely in a very high position and prompts the argument that this person must be somebody very high-ranking at Castile. But who in Castile is higher than Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi?

Nonetheless, it is also true that one of these individuals, Keith Schembri, has close links with high-ranking individuals within the Nationalist Party either directly or through intermediaries. In this set-up, one needs to explore the possibility whether the Egrant mystery person could be somebody linked to the PN. This would be another good reason for Nexia BT not to divulge its client’s name. But since the individual is somehow linked to those close to the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister knows who is behind Egrant, but clearly has no wish to divulge the name.

Whether he is the owner or someone else close to Labour, the reason why the Prime Minister does not want to disclose the name is more than obvious. To admit that it is he or someone close to him, would damage Joseph Muscat’s bid to win the next election. This may also explain why he finds it difficult to remove Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri.

The entire scenario would change dramatically were the Egrant mystery individual   to be someone from the PN. In which case, why would the Prime Minister want to keep the name secret? In normal circumstances, this would have been an opportunity to leak the name to a friendly newspaper to disperse the negative effects Panama Papers is having on his persona. But the Prime Minister wants to keep the cards close to his chest. Why? There are a number of possible reasons. Once again, all are linked to the next election.

Should the Egrant individual be a PN insider, we would only discover the name should it become obvious that Labour is going to lose the election. The Prime Minister would have every reason to drop the bomb at the last moment to try and reverse the electoral result. We can all agree that the next electoral campaign is going to be a short one. Muscat will not repeat Gonzi’s mistake of a protracted three-months campaign. Whenever that happened, as in 1987 and 2013, it came after the government was in office for 15 years. These tactics are used to minimize electoral defeat. Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici succeeded but Lawrence Gonzi failed miserably.

Therefore, if the party-in-government realizes that it is continuing to lose votes to a degree that there is a chance of losing the election, it would be in its interest to call an election before it is too late. With this as background, and if the Egrant mystery person is indeed from the PN, then a Labour victory would be guaranteed. This does not only involve money, but a covert agreement, which may also include an understanding of power sharing.  Should the situation become so desperate that this individual would no longer be in a position to guarantee Labour its victory, then Joseph Muscat would have no other option but to leak the name. As the Italian Socialist Minister Bettino Craxi used to say – “muoiaSansone con tuttiiFilistei” or “let Samson die with all the Philistines”. If this were to occur, it would be a repetition of the oil scandal scenario when the PN was caught in a trap with the oil revelation. Readers will remember that Labour had all the information about this scandal well in advance of the last general elections, but only diffused the information at the start of the electoral campaign. In the meantime, Labour made sure that those who gave the Party the information, were amongst the star candidates.  

One can add that this analysis is superfluous as it comes after Nexia BT auto confession to the Pana Committee that it is the owner of Egrant. I do not need to state that no one in his senses believes such a declaration. The latter was stated before the DB saga, which changed the whole political spectrum. Before the DB accusations, it never crossed the mind of the potential PN owner of Egrant, that there would ever be a possibility for the present Government to reveal his name.  

Thus, in the middle of an electoral campaign, the PN risks to be caught in another nasty political imbroglio. What our nation is witnessing now, with the so-called DB story, is just a dress rehearsal. Compared with the last electoral results, Labour will end up losing votes, but Muscat wants to guarantee for himself and his team another term in office. If the electorate wants to deny him such a chance, then, he has no other option but to tell the nation who the real Egrant owner is.  If he or she is a PN stalwart, then, Simon Busuttil will end up in Gonzi’s same boots, having to fire from the hip in a charged electoral campaign.