On the 3rd June voters will choose between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil. They will decide whether to end midway the plan that Joseph Muscat initiated in 2013 or whether they want to continue on. They have to decide whether they want to follow Simon Busuttil, who in the absence of a concrete plan, will readopt the previous administration’s policies or whether they want the PN to finally regenerate itself in opposition.
I believe that an informed choice requires voters to focus on hard facts. In this article I will focus on five themes: economic growth, jobs, poverty, public finances and the cost of living.
There is consensus that under Joseph Muscat our economy has flourished. However the PN state that before 2013 we were doing well and that progress reflects an improved European economy. Let us start with the second point. Just this week, the Central Bank pointed out that we are growing at a rate three times that of the euro area. This shows that whatever is happening in Europe, we are on a completely different path. As for the claim that under the PN we were doing well, consider that between 2012 and 2016, Malta’s real GDP grew by €1.9 billion. This is equal to the rise between 1998 and 2012. In 4 years we have had the increase in GDP we previously had in 15 years.
In his 2013 economic plan “Futur fis-sod”, Simon Busuttil had forecast that under his leadership Malta’s GDP would reach €8.1 billion by 2016. Under Joseph Muscat, GDP reached that level in 2014 and last year it stood at €9.9 billion, that is 22% higher than Busuttil’s target. Simon Busuttil in 2013 projected that in 2013-2016 growth would average 2.7%. Joseph Muscat achieved 6.3.
This time round Simon Busuttil has yet to discuss the economic impact of his policies. Joseph Muscat in the first week of the campaign, backed by Edward Scicluna, Malta’s best ever finance minister, showed that growth should average 6.5% if he is given a mandate to implement his proposals.
This leads me to the second theme. In many countries there is social angst as economic growth is not translating into jobs. The classic case is the US, but also in France and the UK, there is broad resentment that the economy is not creating jobs for locals. Here in Malta in 4 years, the number of jobs rose by 28,000 or more than the increase in the previous 15 years taken together.
The previous administration had a target that by 2020 Malta’s employment rate would reach 62.9%. Joseph Muscat exceeded that in 2014. Eurostat show that in 2016 we reached 69.6%, for the first time in history equal to the euro area average. Back in 2012 we were 5 percentage points below.
In the months that Simon Busuttil was Deputy Leader of the Party in Government, every two days there was an increase of 4 persons on the unemployment register. From 6,811 persons registering for work, we ended with 7,350. Under Joseph Muscat’s administration every two days six people left the register. We now have nearly 2,600 registering, the lowest number since data started to be collected in the 1960s.
This leads me to discuss poverty. According to Eurostat in 2012 those in severe material deprivation in Malta amounted to 37,000. This marked a 10,000 increase at a time when the PN was stating that poverty was a perception. Yet in 2012 there were 12,000 persons dependent on social assistance. In 2016 those in severe material deprivation have fallen to 19,000, while persons dependent on social assistance amounted to 6,302. In 4 years, numbers have halved. This is why this administration focused on economic growth. Without a strong economy one cannot have a strong society. As for those who argue that a strong economy means a weak environment, may I point out that Eurostat data show that CO 2 emissions have halved since 2012.
The fourth theme is public finances. In 2012, with Simon Busuttil as Deputy Leader, the deficit reached €362 million, the highest in our history. In 2016, Joseph Muscat achieved the first surplus in 35 years. For the first time in a generation Government spent less than it earned. The impact of this on our standing in the international financial community is immeasurable. Both Moody’s and Fitch have already issued statements to their clientele lauding this achievement. As a result of the surplus for the first time since 1998 we have a national debt below 60% of GDP. This administration has eliminated the increase in the debt burden made by the previous three administrations. In the period that Simon Busuttil was Deputy Leader, debt increased by €100 million a month such that the burden rose from 68.1% to 71.5%.
The improvement in public finances was not due to austerity. In fact, the increase in our cost of living has been quite low. Inflation under this administration averaged 1%, as against 2.4% under the previous one. The previous administration had raised the price of petrol and diesel by 36%, or double the EU increase. This administration lowered petrol and diesel prices by 20c and 22c, while in the EU they have fallen by 19c. In 2012, Malta had the fifteenth highest electricity bills in the EU, after the previous administration raised them by 68% or three times the EU increase. While EU electricity prices are 7% higher than in 2012, in Malta we have had a 26% decline. Consequentially residential electricity prices in Malta are now the fourth lowest in the EU.
This record explains why the latest Eurobarometer showed that nearly 60% of those interviewed believe that things are going in the right direction. Back in 2012 there were just 30% saying this.
The proposals that Joseph Muscat is placing before the electorate are a clear continuation of those which have led to the results of the last years. The best for our country is yet to come.
Alex Muscat is a Labour Party candidate