These days, there is a lot of talk about the future leader of the PN.

Names are being bandied around but only one thing is certain:the future leader has to be picked from the Parliamentary Group. I cannot imagine a scenario, where a PN leader is  not a member of parliament.

For someone, who is not a member of parliament, the only way forward to make it to parliament is through a co-option. This is how Joseph Muscat and Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici made it to parliament. Theyare the only two leaders, who became head of a party,  which already had representation in Parliament, before being members of Parliament.

There should not be any doubt that the choice of districts for the PN’s bye-elections were planned and selected following a special criteria that included  electing individuals who have the potential to fill the void that is going to be created with the departure of Simon Busuttil. I am not sure whether the PN was successful in this bid. One needs to wait and see. What is certain is that while the PN has a number of potential candidates to fill the post of deputy leaders, it lacks suitable material to fill the post of leader. This is why, there are individuals who want to protract the process of electing a new leader.

One of the potential leaders from the elected group is Marlene Farrugia, but she has now made it clear that she is not interested in this post. I am sure that the inner core of the Nationalist Party have realized this to the extent that the party has taken the bizarre decision not to allocate any shadow ministry to either Marlene Farrugia or Godfrey Farrugia. Marlene Farrugia’s reaction towards the headship of the PN is more than justified. This brought the PN to make a Canossa or change of heart: Marlene and Godfrey, we are told, are going to be invited to the meetings of the Parliamentary group.

This means that the PN has now lost its political plot. This is not an issue of whether Marlene Farrugia or any other MP from the PN has thequalities to be the leader of the party. This is now an issue of righteousness. The PN Leader built his whole political rhetoric on this point. Now, that the election has been lost, this party wants to play the Machiavellian maverick and each time, this is backfiringfor the PN.

The worse thing that the PN can do now is to push the PD to become a fully-fledged independent party. In this situation, the PD would have no other option but to organize itself at local levels. If it works well, the PD has the assets to challenge the PN.

The PN is showing that it is not in a position to rebuild itself. Therefore, a new formation will be structured, and like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, a new political party will be born, in particular, if it goes for the Catholic voters as well as other Christian faiths. This is a section of the electorate that both main parties are ignoring.

What is important for the PN is that the sooner it sorts outthe selection ofthe new leader, the better. It needs to set clear and honest rules.It has already made the strategic mistake of postponing electing its leader to Septemberbesides setting a bizarre process that leaves much to be desired.

Labourinstead is acting swiftly and by July its deputy leaderwill have been chosen. Possibly the processfor Labouris easier but this factor does not justify the PN dragging its feet. It only demonstrates the lack of preparation or willingness of the PN to convince the electorate that it was ready to govern.

What the PN should avoid is to play into Keith Schembri’s hand. For those who are unaware, let me be clear.  Keith Schembri was created by the PN. When many Maltese citizens were facing serious difficulties carrying on their businessesunder different PN Governments, Keith Schembri was most successful and made exceptionalheadway.

It would be wrong to state that Schembri was created by Joseph Muscat. What Joseph Muscat is doing  vis-à-vis the local business community now is to ensure that there are no signs of arrogance which were the hallmarks of past PN’s administrations.

Therefore, I do not know whether I should have cried or laughed when I read the PN’s statement that Labour has learnt nothing by reappointing Keith Schembri as Chief of Staff. Muscat would have been insulting the electorate had he not reappointed him after such a landslide victory. This victory showed that the people wanted Keith Schembri as Chief of Staff and Konrad Mizzi as minister. One can state that this is not good for the country, but this is now besidesthe point.  The electorate voiced itsopinion  by voting.

But what worries me is not the fact that Keith Schembri was the kingmaker behind Joseph Muscat and this electoral victory, but he is going to be the kingmaker behind the PN leadership.

This explains why Labour has started, in earnest, to attack Marlene Farrugia. Labour knows that she is the only candidate that Keith cannot control.On the contrary, there is a Latin expression which fits Marlene’s well. She is a”spina in lateribus”  or a thorn in Labour’s side. This is why Labour sought to eliminate and kill her politically.

By ousting Marlene and Godfrey from the role of shadow ministers or worse, not working towards a merger, the PN will be playing intoSchembri’s hands.

Keith Schembri is interested in protecting his business empire. If I were in his shoes, I would do the same. What matters for Schembri is that when the time comes, the PN leader will be someone with whom he can deal and who assures him protection of his interests. The problem is not immediate.

More time is needed before the PN is electable. But if one day, this party will have a chance to return to power it is necessary to start preparing the terrain now and Keith Schembri’s men within the Nationalist party have already started working. What could stop Schembri from achieving his aim, is either the formation of a new political party or a leader who is not to his liking.

Perhaps, this argument may sound as rather far-fetched but allow me to remind you that Simon Busuttil’s mass meeting speech ended up in One News room. Even Ann Fenech’s email ended up in the Opposition’s hands. This shows the element of control that Keith holds within the PN.

Therefore, to return to my main argument, the reason why there are people now insisting that the Party should take time and reflect on the choice of a new leader is very simple. This will give time to the person Keith wants as leader to start asserting himself.

The game now isto  elect a candidate who will not make headway in the next election. Thus, the chances for the PN to go to government will only increase after 2022. Individuals who eye politics will be more interested in those potential candidates who can become leaders after 2022 rather than the one to be elected now.

Clearly the PN will not be able to make it next time round which means that Labour will win again. The leader that is going to be selected in September will have to resign to make space for a new candidate in 2022.

But after 2022, political fatigue will start erodingLabour and the chances to win again will diminish. It would be at this point that Keith Schembri will push his candidate. But to achieve all this, the spadework needs to start now. The only way to deflect such a strategy is for the party to go for someone who is suitable now and not for a sure loser.