The Italian General Election a few weeks ago was always pegged down to be an unpredictable election. Indeed, Italian politics can sometimes be better assimilated to soap operas as opposed to the process of governing one of Europe's largest economies. The two players in the hat who seemed to offer the best prospect of a tumultuous post-election Italy were Matteo Salvini's Lega and Luigi Di Maio's Movimento 5 Stelle.
Before the election, few would have been willing to bet against the prediction that Movimento 5 Stelle would emerge as the biggest or one of the biggest single parties in Italy. Even fewer would have been willing to bet against the prediction that in the case of victory for the centre-right block Salvini's Lega would play a major role in government. Yet even a seasoned gambling man would have been hesitant to wager on the prospect of seeing Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega join forces and form a government.
There is very little that unites Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega. On the one hand the Lega finds its political inspiration in regional-nationalism and strong right-wing politics, carrying along with it the baggage of a long running political relationship with Silvio Berlusconi and his political force. On the other hand, the birth of Movimento 5 Stelle can be traced to the sense of frustration with the established parties of former comedian Beppe Grillo. Movimento 5 Stelle's birth aim was seemingly to rip the political rulebook to shreds and write a fresh political script, all be it with a very left wing tinge. This made Movimento 5 Stelle a winner with southern Italy - the more problematic the region, the bigger the margin of victory for Movimento 5 Stelle.
Yet despite these inherent differences between Italy's new governing coalition partners there was always one string of thought that united both parties all be it in different ways; a deep sense of scepticism towards the European Union. Indeed, that deep sense of scepticism towards the European Union could be just the glue that is holding this unlikely alliance together. Both parties want to give the EU, for want of better terms, the finger in terms of a whole plethora of issues, ranging from foreign policy, to immigration to fiscal rules.
The EU may find that obtaining any flexibility from this new government will be difficult, if at all possible. Not so much because Di Maio or Salvini will be politically obstinate but because this deep running sense of scepticism is pretty much the only string that binds the two together. Furthermore, this deep sense of rebellion is what catapulted both parties to power to begin with; a sense of rebellion against the Italian political establishment which both leaders must now translate to rebellion against Brussels if they have any hope of avoiding a political defeat the next time Italy goes to the polls.
On its part, Brussels can react, as it normally does in such circumstances - by blaming the Italian electorate for getting it all wrong. Brussels can react by claiming to be on the receiving end of the stick in an undeserving manner; it can react by claiming that populism is politically impossible to implement in hard reality. Brussels may choose to place Italy in the naughty corner for electing a naughty government. But we have been there before haven't we? We said the same thing about Poland, about Hungary, about the United Kingdom, and to a lesser degree about Austria.
Is it not perhaps time that Brussels asks itself why country after country keeps reacting in this way? Is it not time for the European Union to wake up to the fact that it needs to undergo far-reaching reform to stop proving to be such fertile ground for populist movements? Is it not time for the European Union to commit to true change before this wave of populism becomes so large that it completely engulfs the European project?
Dr Micallef is a Nationalist Party General Election Candidate