What we witnessed in the past months is probably an unprecedented wave of disruption.
One would ask whether globalisation is dead, and whether ‘isolationism’ is the foundation of the new world order.
However even the word order sounds out of place, as the more one reads and follows, the issue of disruption makes the notion or ‘disorder’ as the new world order.
Disruption, by definition, is a radical change, necessitating an adjustment of course or strategy. The disruption in the international world seems to be driven by the notion of ‘isolation’.
The departure of the idea of commonness, and thus the notion of common good has driven countries to look at their interests first.
In the past and for a substantial number of years following World War II, a definition of the World Order had at its fulcrum a ‘balance’ between the US, the main European countries and other major economies on one side and the ‘other’ countries at the other end.
In this environment multilateral agreements concluded in diverse areas among which economic, trade and environmental matters ensured general harmony and a certainty in the continuity of an effective World Order. The common value was that of unification and a dire need to end divides. While everyone looked at their interest, these interests were always second to the notion of a ‘common good’. Common good was the essence which drove most of the political changes we witnessed in that decade and the following one.
September 11th did change things and that change led to a diverse way of looking at things. It started to sow the seeds of what we have today. With it we saw the growing distrust in the concept of a multi-national super power which preserved peace. Migration and fears on security continued to grow.
Disgruntlement from centrist politics fuelled further distrust in a political system which we knew. Political blunders, economic failures and a crisis led to a situation where people wanted to try anything else, except what we had. It can also be argued that the financial crash of 2008 dealt another blow to globalisation and citizens grew more sceptical of international cooperation and trade agreements that only seemed to benefit mega-institutions.
The result is what we’re living today. Disruption. While in technology disruption is seen as good, and businesses are urged to embrace it, in politics and international scene, the disruption we’re seeing is of a significant scale.
Closer to home, Brexit as The Observer recently commented has somehow damaged the idea of Europe, and to Europe’s standing in the world. Britain’s departure effect, if it happens, will be considerable and lasting because let’s face it, In the era of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the European Enlightenment’s legacy of open societies based on legal rights, obligations and individual freedoms is under sustained attack. Democratic governance is not a given in much of the world. Europe is its first and last bastion.
Interpretation of democratic values and how these are creating scenarios like those in Italy, Hungary and in a way in the UK pose a challenge to ‘unity’ and all those elements which constituted the notion of Europe as those who saw the breaking of the wall in the 90s find it difficult to fathom.
As such the Trump factor, the Brexit impact and the various European countries’ departure from its founding principles amongst some of its member states have all fuelled the notion further.
In this environment the role of the EU in the new world order becomes all the more important. Economically and politically, it has to remain unified to be able to withstand any attack Trump may decide to unleash and having defined the EU as a trade ‘foe’ of the US does nothing to abet this growing concern.
Realistically the EU, if ‘united’, has the numbers to be a global economic power. The challenge is to remain united and speak with one voice in the global arena. The issues within the European structure aren’t as much economical as much as they are political. Issues of migration and security remain the issues at the core.
The aspect of migration for the EU needs to be taken also in consideration, if Europe as a whole, wants to become a global world power it has to act as one.
For Europe to thrive, even economically, in the wake of the geopolitical disruption environment we’re constantly witnessing, unity is key. The need to find ‘common grounds’ on what one can build is crucial, otherwise we’re doomed for a re-invention of an order which is formed on disorder.
Jesmond Saliba is the executive chairman of Corporate Id Group and the co-founder of Diplomatique.Expert, the geopolitical advisory arm of the group’s consultative arm ‘Ci Consulta’