Few would have thought that, when British Prime Minister David Cameron had taken Britain to a referendum to decide its future in the European Union, he would have unleashed a political storm that is still battering Britain more than three years later.
The result of that poll – the people’s decision to leave the Union was unexpected to many – sparked a maelstrom that has caused so much disruption and uncertainty that it is hard to imagine an immediate calm, whatever happens on 31 October or beyond.
That date was the second deadline set for Britain’s departure after the 29 March came and went without any hint of a lasting agreement on how the famous – or infamous – Brexit is to take place. But now, just a few weeks before that second cut-off date, we are nowhere near a solution.
British politics has probably never faced a similar tumultuous period, which has now been exacerbated by defections and dismissals that continue to throw even more shadows on the way forward. There is also a possibility of an election taking place between now and the 31 October deadline, but whether this – if it happens – will solve anything remains a big question mark. Even here, there is great opposition to Boris Johnson’s idea of an early poll, just as much as there is opposition to his idea of leaving the EU without a deal.
Six weeks ago, when he was elected Conservative Party leader and then Prime Minister, Johnson had made it seem that leaving the EU was going to be a simple matter. But now it is evident that he is facing a tough battle, which he further enhanced with his decision to request the suspension of Parliament, a move that triggered frustration among his detractors who saw it as a way for Johnson to avoid having the matter further discussed in the House.
Johnson became prime minister in July by promising to lead Britain out of the EU, breaking the impasse that paralyzed the country's politics since voters decided in June 2016 to leave the bloc.
But he is caught between the EU, which refuses to renegotiate the deal it stuck with May, and a majority of British lawmakers opposed to leaving without an agreement. Most economists say a no-deal Brexit would cause severe economic disruption and plunge the UK into recession.
Johnson was humiliated Tuesday by losing his first Commons vote as Prime Minister when MPs passed a motion 328-301 that enabled their push for a law stopping a no-deal Brexit. His government also lost its working majority as one Conservative MP defected to the opposition, and more than 20 Conservative legislators sided with the opposition on the vote.
Johnson replied with swift vengeance, expelling the rebels from the Conservatives in Parliament, leaving them as independent MPs.
There is now also talk that the EU should be asked to delay Brexit by a further three months, until 31 January 2020. This would require approval from the EU heads of government.
The EU has shown extreme patience as the UK battled its Brexit demons, and one has to see how long this will last.