1.  An election in 2020 finds the PN in total disarray. It’s not that Labour does not have its own issues. But it is clear that the Nationalist Party is in deeper trouble, particularly because of internal division. Adrian Delia was elected by the party members in 2017, but he has never been supported by a sizeable section of the party structures, including some of his own MPs. Several of them have made matters difficult for him, and they will probably continue to do so until they see him out. No survey is published without calls for his resignation, as his numbers show that he is not trusted by the electorate. What these MPs and other PN officials fail to see is that they are greatly contributing to the downfall of their party, headed as it is towards its third electoral defeat in a row, possibly worsening the negative records achieved in 2013 and 2017. The PN has undergone an internal re-organisation which it is calling a renewal, but there are serious doubts whether anything could change its fate. Labour knows it will have an easy ride into another five-year term.

2.  Labour has already been through the exercise of an early election, and since it is in power, it has the advantage of keeping its cards close to its chest until the right moment arrives. It knows how to prepare for polls which come earlier than expected. In 2017, then PM Joseph Muscat set the election date one year ahead of its normal course. Whatever the reason for that decision, Labour was ready and its electoral machine was up and running from day one. It is a known fact that Labour’s internal structures are functioning better than those of the PN, which have gone through tremendous upheaval in the last three years and are still to settle down after the latest reform. Labour will also soon also have a deputy leader solely focussed on the party, and without the responsibility of a ministry or a personal ambition to be elected. This will put it in a stronger position than it already is.

3.  Robert Abela will have the chance to come clean and get rid of the millstones that are heckling his government. He has already made some important decisions, such as not selecting people like Chris Cardona and Konrad Mizzi as ministers. The former resigned both from MP and the deputy leadership post, but Mizzi, in spite of being kicked out of the PL parliamentary group, hangs on. As does Joseph Muscat, whose resignation after his office was linked with the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia will remain a huge stain on Labour’s history. An election will mean that Labour will have the opportunity to wipe its slate clean, and for Abela to build his own team. Surveys show that he is a trusted more as a leader, and it must also be said that many of his young crop of ministers are performing well.

4.  Malta has had a very difficult first half of the year because of the Coronavirus pandemic. It has affected our health system, our economy and our way of life. The government has reacted well to the situation, delving deep into its pockets to help an ailing economy survive the crisis. It is however possible that the worst effects are still to come. The government cannot continue to dish out financial assistance ad eternum. It is also likely that taxes will have to be introduced or increased for the government to recoup some of its expenditure. Abela has said that there is no intention to do so, but in one way or another, the government will have to take action to keep the country’s finances on track. Some of the assistance provided by the EU will have to be paid back. The prickly pear, remember? An election might be held before these unpopular measures are taken.

5.  The notion that Malta could be placed on the grey list later this year or early the next because of its failures to address money laundering issues might not be an important consideration to the average voter. But the negative effects of such a listing could bring about serious problems for Malta, and not only in terms of reputation. The holding of an early election might be the last (desperate?) attempt to show that the Labour government means business and wants to do away with its recent past and start afresh. In its manifesto, Labour would pledge to be more forceful in its attempts to combat money laundering, and a large victory would then give it a strong mandate to implement its plans.

Five reasons for election in 2022