I remain extremely sceptical (it’s not the first time I’m writing this) about the forecasts being made for the economic scenario of the next two years or so. This applies both for when projections appear to be quite attractive – meaning less awful than one would have expected – and when they are awful.

I still cannot understand how on the basis of the experience we’re getting through, certain sets of numbers get published to indicate growth or decline. The uncertainties we face are huge because no precedent exists with which they can be compared. This does not only relate to the corona virus pandemic but also as well to developments concerning Brexit, the US presidential elections and how China is positioning itself in Asia.

Ongoing processes are not carrying over pre-existing tendencies. To a large extent, they are completely new. No template exists based on what has happened in the past that could provide real guidance as to how present processes will unroll or how they will interact with each other as they proceed.

This does not mean that there shall be a catastrophic end to what’s going on. It means that considering with a pinch of scepticism both those who predict one outcome and those who predict its opposite makes sense.

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RULES OF CONDUCT

As a society we still are not clear as to how we stand internally regarding the correct norms of behaviour that should apply in practice. We are caught in the customs of a tiny social system where all actors know all other actors and all need something from somebody else... and where everybody is shy of getting hated by anybody else.

To complicate matters – for then we have remained a democracy – all this is tied to the political commitment (or imperative) that in a democracy acts as a drive for all relevant political actors to secure as many votes as possible. The outcome in the ways by which as a result, the conduct of public affairs has evolved is not attractive.

The only valid argument I can see in favour of an executive presidency – limited to one term – is precisely this: perhaps it would serve to smash the vicious circle in which the conduct of public affairs is locked.

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A LOST XMAS?

Glumness prevails in Europe as fears grow that the coming Christmas will be very sombre. The Christmas markets that create a festive spirit in the best of cities as well as in smaller conurbations were cancelled long ago.

Now the fear really is that even the traditional family dinners will be prohibited – and forget about the parties held in offices and clubs; they have been waiting for the axe to drop for quite a while, with the prospect ever present that it would shortly doso.

The discouragement being felt because this year the celebration of Christmas could be totally aborted is significant. After all, Christmas began as a religious festival. During the last 150 years, it developed into a family and commercial celebration. Yet it remained as the last link between the memory of Christian commitment and the sense of community in European societies. The latter are now caught in the depressive cycles of a world “globalised” because of the initiatives undertaken by this same Europe during the past five centuries.

Are we close to witnessing the demoralisation of Europe?