Covid-19 unexpectedly pushed the advent of teleworking forward by several years. Who could conceive the vision of the most important cities devoid of people and cars? If ever there was the need of proof, the widespread lockdown showed a clear and manifest correlation between cars and air quality. The increasingly common trend of conducting politics through social media, where highly charged emotional, digital shouting matches, are taken over by a vocal minority, has not made things easier.
Two of the recurrent subjects that often cause a stir on the media, are the Gozo-Malta tunnel and the underground metro. I do find the enthusiasm that some show in promoting grand infrastructural projects, baffling. These individuals may have justified reason to do so, but they seem to overlook the great financial burden these schemes would have on the 10th smallest country in the world. They appear to pay no heed to the lack of technical justification for such an investment and unfettered by the flagrant evidence of poor workmanship, in many public works, such as Mater Dei hospital or the Cirkewwa Terminal, where the issue seems to always orbit around concrete structures.
When committing to mega infrastructural projects, public consultation is valuable but final decisions should not be taken by vox pop. The future of our country is at stake and it must carry more weight than whether pineapple belongs on pizza. Malta’s small size, the limited pool of experts and the familiarity with individuals representing powerful lobby groups, agents and brokers of private interests, may lead politicians towards dangerous confirmation bias. Surrounding oneself by an echo chamber of political appointees and feeling emboldened by social media feedback, may distract from the importance of empirical data.
Back in 1995, when the Planning Authority was still interested in promoting academic courses on spatial planning, I too was fascinated by metros and tunnels. My childish fascination was not based on any scientific data, but rather on my very limited experiences of the London Underground while on vacation. Many Maltese do not feel the urge to rent or use a car while on holiday, find hopping off from one tube line to the other fun and walk up and down the highstreets for hours on end.
Some seem to be trying to browbeat the rest of the population into thinking that an underwater, all-traffic, one-lane tunnel between Gozo and Malta is the only solution for Gozo and that the underground metro is the silver bullet for our congested roads, towns and villages. Some may think that a ferry crossing and the absence of a permanent link has positive implications for tourism in Gozo, as it gives a feeling of “getting away” and a distinctive niche location.
Some may have already calculated how much they stand to pocket in brokerage, consultancy and commission fees, reports with foregone conclusions, hauling and dumping of excavated waste material, the pouring of millions of tonnes of concrete and purchasing of equipment. They may think that with some luck, these will generate enough waste to reclaim land and create little artificial islands, which can be built upon.
In considering the Malta-Gozo tunnel, which seems at a more advanced stage than the metro proposal, let us keep in mind that even the busiest airports in the United States, experience closures during bad weather. Londoners spend on average, more than 70 minutes to commute to work and university students in most countries, often move out from their parents’ house, enriching their lives in the process.
The Eurotunnel (railway tunnel), which opened in 1994, is perhaps the best-known example of an underground permanent link, connecting two economic powerhouses, such as England and France. At the time, the estimated cost was £5.5bn, but it overrun to £9bn, wiping out most of its original shareholders in the process. The tunnel was forced into debt restructuring in 1997 and placed into bankruptcy protection in 2006. It only turned a profit in 2007 and only because it was too big to fail.
While the Eurotunnel is a cautionary tale, highlighting the fact that these schemes need to be supported by big populations and high ridership, we cannot ignore that viable alternatives exist. When the fourth ferry was added to the Gozo Channel schedule, traffic queues and delays reduced immediately. Some inexplicably frowned at this, since it did not follow their narrative. A €300m investment in the ferry vessels, instead of a €1bn tunnel, could improve commuting to and from Malta dramatically. Modern, fast vessels (of which some may be passengers-only ferries) travelling from Mġarr to Valletta in less than 30 minutes, would be quicker, relaxing and cheaper. True, this proposal does not involve bricks and concrete. Why invest in a project that could potentially cripple the nation’s finances for decades and still require a 50-minute drive, up and down to Cirkewwa, through the bottlenecks of Xemxija Hill, Manikata, Miżieb, Żebbiegħ and Burmarrad, before arriving to Mater Dei, University, Msida and Valletta?
Urban transport planning is based on extensive scientific research, in depth study and analysis of travel patterns, not airlifting systems or models from one context to another.
Thinking outside the box does not necessarily mean promoting grandiose, unviable systems and showing bravado in selling it to the public. Leonardo da Vinci, who can’t be accused for lack of imagination or creative thinking, once said “simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”. It is more creative, perhaps, to make the most of what you have, when the rest of the population just gave up or can’t see it. Like cooking TV shows, chefs show their prowess by preparing fabulous dishes with just three ingredients.
In considering traffic congestion we also need to understand the context. Many of those born in the 2000s have never boarded a bus, or if they did, it was just for the “thrill”. Most Maltese still think that buses are for the elderly, for those too young to have a driving license or for those who can’t afford a car. When a person is diagnosed with cardiac problems, doctors never suggest surgery as the first course of action. Usually patients are told to eat less, exercise more and change various aspects of their lifestyle. In this analogy, road construction is surgery, clogged arteries are roads full of free and unmanaged on-street parking and eating less and exercise, would translate in a reduction in car reliance and using alternative modes of transport. If we want to tackle traffic problems in this country, we need a lifestyle and cultural change and understand that a car, like a mobile phone, costs money to use. We cannot expect others to use public transport, walk or cycle.
It makes sense that developers and construction magnates promote tunnels and underground metros. Abraham Maslow (1966) describes this as cognitive bias, hence an over-reliance on a familiar tool. Maslow said that if the only tool you have is a hammer, it would be very tempting to treat everything as if it were a nail. Developers and construction lobbies have an insatiable need to build, hence metros and tunnels offer that opportunity, independently of what the country really needs.
While it is no secret that the official London Underground map, designed by Harry Beck in 1933, is the most recognisable transit map in the world, most still remember the 2011 debacle, when government, greatly heightened expectations and used a very similar map to promote the ill-fated public transport reform, which saw Arriva, one of London’s largest bus operators, take charge of scheduled bus service and go down in flames. No pun intended. Regrettably, flashy promotional material and popularity contests on social media are not enough to make successful schemes. These require facts, reliable, contextual and objective assessments. More importantly these schemes require a political vision that extends over multiple legislatures.
These systems do not stop at the capital outlay of construction but have massive recurring expenses to maintain and upgrade. Here are some facts that some may not be familiar with, and which may give pause for thought.
London, England’s capital city has an area of 1,572km² and a population of circa 9 million (2019); Malta is a country of 316km² with a population of 494,000. In 2018, the gross domestic product of London alone was approximately €541bn, as opposed to Malta’s €12bn. The Congestion Charge in London costs at least £15 and applies seven days a week, except Christmas Day. We progressively dismantled our CVA in Valletta, which incidentally had served as a pilot project for London’s scheme.
In London, on-street parking costs on average €5.50/hour, while in some parts of London, parking spaces sell for over £500,000, when the average London home costs £473,800. In Malta, on-street parking is free and not managed, while many garages are used as storage units.
Metros are a major engineering feat much different from a stormwater tunnel. Some stretches will involve large boring machines drilling and casting underground tunnels, while others will require the complete reconstruction of roads with major, prolonged disruptions above ground. The London Tube network is also complemented, among others, by about 9,550 buses, stations and interchanges, an extensive well-established network of priority lanes, cycle lanes and intelligent traffic signal systems.
The London Underground started operations in 1863, has a network length of about 400km, of which 55% is above ground. It has 11 lines and 270 stations; 46% of households in London do not own a car (car ownership is 0.3 cars per adult), as opposed to Malta’s average 1.6 cars per household (0.7 cars per adult). London underground handles up to five million passenger journeys a day and annual ridership of 1.4 billion. Malta has an average 147,000 bus passengers a day and annual ridership of 44 million. The system consumes circa 1,290 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity and operates at a deficit of hundreds of millions of euros each year, needing continuous maintenance and upgrades (some of the trains and stations are more than 70 years old). Over 70% of the €6.8bn spent by Transport for London in operating costs (2019) is covered by the fares, compared with 38% in New York. Still as many Londoners know, sometimes it's quicker to walk than take the tube, which means that even such a well-established system requires about £2bn a year in continuous improvements.
It is useless to have underground metro line/s that only cater for peak hours or seasonal fluctuations. The network has to have sufficient space for adequate stations which would require massive, costly expropriation. If stations are few and far between, the system would involve many time-consuming interchanges and fail to deliver the high level of service required. Good frequency, connectivity and priority over mainstream traffic are key to the success of mass transit networks.
Giant leaps have been made in technology. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a high-quality bus-based transit system that delivers fast, comfortable and cost-effective services at metro-level capacities. These systems allow for a quick roll out (five years) and enable pilot projects, have dedicated lanes that can be shared with other road users, such as cyclists and can be easily upgraded to Light Rapid Transit (LRT) systems, trackless trams and other lighter systems. They are far cheaper, quicker to deploy, are flexible and do not need the same level of patronage, investment, running costs, space and stations that metros require. Systems in Spain, France, Italy, Brazil, Colombia and China offer quite an interesting perspective on such systems.
Solutions to complex problems are usually a combination of initiatives, good will and political commitment based on accurate scientific information. The pursuit of common good has no place for partisan politics, but leadership, capable of delivering honest information, which is not obsessed with vanity projects. It is often very easy to privatise the profits and socialise the losses. After water, concrete is the most widely used substance on Earth. Watchdog group, Transparency International, suggests that the craze for pouring tonnes of concrete may seem as a benign means to social development but can swiftly metastasised into a tool for political expediency and individual greed. Malta can ill afford to embark on such a quest, when better alternatives exist.
Bjorn Bonello has a B.Sc. Hons. Environmental Planning (Birmingham, UK)