Afghanistan should teach us once again that a house will collapse if you build it from the roof down. You cannot build the national institutions of another country from the top down and from the outside. Stable and durable national institutions have to be built from within a country and by the people of that country, from the bottom up, according to their history, culture and geography.
Afghanistan teaches us yet again that a purely military intervention “to civilise” another country never works. Imposing oneself on another country, unless you wipe it out completely, is never the answer to bring about regime change. It is as if you want to build a house and you call in only the demolition people. They destroy the existing house and do not build a new one. The people will lose what they had and end up with piles of rubble and chaos, shattered dreams and despair.
A purely political project designed by outsiders does not work either. There must be a slow social, economic process from within and its main purpose must be for the benefit of the people through wealth creation with social justice and job creation. Families need to feel their lives improve and to build their skills through education. Not only Rome was not built in a day.
Even the countries that expect other countries to leapfrog centuries and become liberal democracies in an instant seem to forget that they themselves took centuries to become what they are today and there was no linear progression and their achievements were and are not irreversible. Their institutions are still fragile. They have to be defended, maintained and their values nurtured.
Intervening in countries like Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria with a “daddy knows best mentality” does not work.
For centuries Afghanis have not been allowed to build their own country and shape their own history. Other countries have invaded them to make use of Afghanistan in their own interests. As long as outside powers will continue to meddle in Afghanistan and the Afghanis are allowed to find ways of build their future themselves, the complicated issues they face will not be resolved.
They are very rich in natural resources, yet they are among the poorest in the world as they have been pillaged by at least five invasions in the last two centuries alone. But the Afghanis have also been let down by their leaders who put their interests first before those of their people. Yes, Afghanistan is “the graveyard of empires” but it is also the graveyard of millions of Afghanis killed in wars involving the British Empire, the Soviet Unions and the United States and NATO.
They must be allowed to build their country themselves, as they painfully, slowly and patiently find out how and according to the principles of the UN Charter if they want to be accepted as a nation belonging to the international community.
All countries with a potential interest in Afghanistan need to sit down together within a UN framework and agree to allow and support (not impose) an Afghani led process to build their country with a commitment that their territory cannot be used to threaten the security of any other country.
This means that the USA, EU, China, Iran, Russia, India, Pakistan and other neighbouring countries should be involved together and no one should be excluded. For this to stand any chance of success we must return again to diplomacy with humility, to dialogue and negotiations, instead of confrontation and self-righteous crusading.
Whither Libya?
There are similarities between Afghanistan and Libya. Undoubtedly, they are two different realities. But I am worried that some of the people and countries responsible for the new chaos in Afghanistan are the same people and countries driving the Libyan process from outside, thinking that things will fall into place inevitably if only the Libyans follow their orders.
Will these countries be humble enough to learn some lessons after the Afghanistan debacle? Will they commit the same mistakes? Last year Afghanistan held elections. What did they solve? I am not saying that holding no elections in Libya is the solution. Not at all, and we should support the Libyans in this political process to rebuild their country and its institutions
But surely, they are not enough if the situation of the people does not improve. They are still suffering severe water and electricity cuts. Their currency is weak and the cost of living has risen. Over 60% are living under the poverty line. What makes it even more painful is that Libya is one of the riches countries in the Mediterranean.
As an old Libyan politician told me: our rich resources are our curse as other countries do not leave us in peace as they are eager to exploit our resources in their own interest.
At the same time what is happening in Libya cannot be laid only at the door of outsiders. As long as Libyans remain divided, outsiders will continue to play them against each other and there will be Libyan leaders who continue to use outsiders against each other, using their energies to fight each other rather than to build their country.
Lack of commitment towards national unity, fratricidal distrust among Libyan politicians, absence of state institutions and civil society create an ecosystem for civil unrest if not worse. The Libyan people have suffered a lot. It is time that they start a new life in peace and prosperity for all of them.
The Mediterranean exists
There cannot be stability in Europe without stability in the Mediterranean, without stability in Africa. Europe and Africa are drifting apart politically.
In Europe an impression is being created that the most important geostrategic events of the 21st century are happening not in the Mediterranean or in Africa, but in the Indo-Pacific.
I’m not saying that the Indo-Pacific is not important. But this obsession that the 21st century is the century of Asia, I think is not completely correct. It is the century of Asia but it is also the century of Africa and unless we keep that in mind, we’re going to have huge problems.
A lot of unresolved conflicts are building up on both shores of the Mediterranean and they must be addressed. I believe that it is time to call a conference on security and cooperation in the Mediterranean in the Helsinki spirit (the OSCE process). I know that this will be very difficult and I have no illusions that if we have such a conference we will live happily ever after.
But we need to do it because we don’t work together enough on both shores of the Mediterranean and there are many problems (climate emergency, the move to clean energy, digital transformation, pandemics) that cannot be solved by any single country.
Evarist Bartolo, Minister for Foreign And European Affairs