September has ushered in the last potential year of this administration.

“Potential” is the key word here, because it is likely that we will be voting much earlier than that.

A general election in Malta must be held by the end of five years and three months since the first parliamentary sitting of the legislature. That took place on 24 June 2017, so technically speaking the current term could be stretched until the last weekend of September 2022.

It will not be.

It is hard to imagine Prime Minister Robert Abela keeping the country in such an electrified mode until that time (and choosing for an election campaign in the summer heat). We’re still months away, and yet one can already sense tension in the country. And when this happens, everything else stalls. Given the economic repercussions of Covid-19, another slowdown is the last thing that this country needs.

So Robert Abela will do what most will describe as the right thing and call an election long before the constitutional requirements.

How long is up to him.

The limit

The last time the government took all the time allotted to it by the Constitution was in 1987, when the election was held on the last possible Saturday. That government, which started with Dom Mintoff as Prime Minister and continued with Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici, had been elected in 1981 in spite of obtaining fewer votes, but more seats in the House.

The Mintoff-Mifsud Bonnici government, at five years and five months, was the longest in our political history. But there were other administrations which were not much shorter.

The three legislatures prior to it, which were the first three post-Independence, all lasted five years and three months – March 1966 to June 1971; June 1971 to September 1976, and September 1976 to December 1981.

Eddie Fenech Adami broke the trend, and his first two terms as PM both dipped below five years: four years and nine months between May 1987 and February 1992, and four years and eight months between February 1992 and October 1996. Fenech Adami’s other full term as PM was even shorter, at four years and seven months between September 1998 and April 2003.

Another Nationalist PM, Lawrence Gonzi, opted for longer runs, going four years and 11 months between April 2003 and March 2008, and literally prolonging his second term to five years between March 2008 and March 2013, the time when we had a very long campaign which started in January after the government had collapsed the previous December.

The shortest term was that of Alfred Sant, whose government lasted a mere 22 months between 1996 and 1998. Sant’s administration could not function as a result of his ongoing feud with Mintoff at a time when Labour had a one-seat majority. 

Joseph Muscat had no internal issues to contend with in 2017, but the crisis brought about by the publication of the Panama Papers pushed him to cut his administration short – four years and three months.

The next one

So how long will this administration, which started under Muscat and continued under Abela, last?

Having already reached four years and three months, we already know that it will be longer than Muscat’s.

But, until now, Abela is keeping us guessing.

When he does announce the date, it is hoped that he will not make the same mistake Muscat did in 2017. Then, Muscat had chosen a Labour Party activity – a mass meeting on 1 May – to proclaim the date. He was then speaking as a PL leader, not as Prime Minister, and by doing this he showed utmost disrespect to the nation.

He should have known that he should have announced the date as PM, not as PL leader. If he did know, but chose to discard protocol, well… that’s the kind of “mhux xorta” mentality that he brought about and which unfortunately continues to linger.

The Nationalist Party media, for some reason, is saying that the election will be in November, giving two Saturdays as a possibility. It says it has inside sources confirming this, something which is hard to believe.

For the record, post-Independence elections have never been held in November. And it is unlikely that we will experience one this year. The government, at least according to Abela, is fully focused on the presentation of the budget for 2022, a delicate exercise given the difficulties which have been experienced in the past year and a half because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

It is even more unlikely that an election is held in December, when economic activity multiplies in the run-up to the Christmas and New Year season. Let us remember that shops were kept closed for long weeks in the last 18 months because of the virus scourge, and an election campaign in what the business community sees as the busiest weeks would be too disruptive to the economy which is still to fully recover.

The Pope’s earmarked visit in December is also one other reason why it is improbable that the election will be held before the end of the year.

2022

All seems to be pointing towards an election in the first half of 2022, more specifically some time between March and June. Looking back, seven of the 12 post-Independence general elections were held in these months. The cold weather would be over, the hot summer would still be on its way. But, aside from climatic considerations, it is also considered to be the ideal period as it causes the least disruption to the economy.

Abela has said that the election will be held when it is in the best national interest to do so. He is trying to be a gentleman in saying so, but the foremost priority would be the interest of his party, giving it the best possible chance to emerge victorious.

Well, this time round, considering that all surveys are indicating another handsome victory for the PL, any time would be good. The distance in popularity between the two parties is still too wide and it has been consistently so all throughout this legislature (in spite of all that took place), meaning that Abela can pick and choose any date and still looks set to lead the PL to a third consecutive term.

If anything, it’s the Covid-19 pandemic which will probably be the biggest headache for Abela, given the way the number of cases has fluctuated since the pandemic started. There were times when active cases were going down steadfastly, only to multiply into hundreds and a couple of thousands within days.

So, in a nutshell, we could have a situation in which Abela could be calling an election on a day when the numbers are stable, only to see them rise sharply as the campaign goes on and polling day gets nearer. It’s a kind of risk he has to take.

Campaign

What is sure is that, considering the restrictions that are in place because of the pandemic, it will be an election campaign like no other.

As things stand now, there will not be any mass meetings as we know them. In past elections, there was at least one mass meeting per week for both the PL and the PN, and these attracted thousands of party loyalists. They were often also used to gauge public support. Mass meetings are not allowed as per restrictions currently in place.

The political parties will have to find other ways through which to get their message across. No doubt, the social media will play its part, and we’ve already seen an increase in the number of posts both by the parties as well as by individuals who will be contesting. Many candidates have been visiting homes on a daily basis for months in a bid to get elected.

Of course, there is still a chance that this might change. It is still too early to say. The practice so far has been that protocols are altered depending on the situation at the time, and what is good today might not be the right approach tomorrow, and vice-versa.

One important question that will need to be answered is to what extent the health authorities will go to facilitate voting. For one thing, will eligible voters be deprived of their right to cast their preference if they positive to the virus? Will those in quarantine also be told that they will be unable to vote?

Fixed date

The idea to have a fixed date for the election has been brought up in the past but it has never been really considered.

In the UK, for example, they already know that the next election will be held on 2 May, 2024, according to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act – unless, of course, the government collapses prematurely.

Such a possibility will allow for better planning, for both the political parties as well as the individual candidates. It will, conversely, remove the Prime Minister’s prerogative of calling an election at what is the most appropriate time for the party in power.

In a document containing 100 ideas for the future, the Labour Party has said it wants to “start of a national discussion on the current electoral system”.

Maybe this could be one of the changes that could be made.