The latest survey confirms what others before it had established – that the Labour Party is heading towards an even bigger victory in the coming election than the last two it achieved.

The PL had won in 2013 and 2017 with 35,107 and 35,280 votes respectively, very similar results which showed that the political landscape did not change much in those four years, in spite of all that happened in between, not just the Panama Papers.

If anything, the Labour Party tries to inflict more distress on the PN by eliminating the votes obtained by Partit Demokratiku candidates in the 2017 poll. PD had formed a coalition with the PN, then led by Simon Busuttil, with PD candidates “stealing” some 4,000 votes from the PN. Labour exponents like to say that the margin of the 2017 victory was closer to 40,000 than 35,000.

But now it appears that, without the PD, the PN is on its way to a an even bigger defeat by 47,000 votes which, again, is surprising to the neutrals, considering all that has taken place since 2017 – the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder, the Joseph Muscat forced resignation, the arraignments in connection with alleged money laundering activities and all the rest.

This massive gap between the two major parties is moving Malta perilously close to Labour having a two-thirds majority, a position that would give the PL absolute power in the country. If this were to happen, Labour would be able to change the Constitution at will, without any consideration of the other side.

In one sentence, Malta would cease to be the democracy as we know it today.

 

The 2008 factor

Nearly 15 years have passed since the PN won its last election, with Lawrence Gonzi narrowly beating Alfred Sant by a mere 1,500 votes in 2008.

That was a watershed moment in Maltese political victory. The PN celebrated at the time, but knowing what we know now and looking back at all the developments that have taken place, it would easily trade that win with a defeat, if given the opportunity. The five years in government that followed, strenuous as they were with the Libyan revolution and the economic crisis, were further compounded with the beginning of the internal collapse of the PN, a situation from which the party has not recovered.

Financially, politically and in matters of credibility, it has been a downward spiral for the once glorious Nationalist Party.

Conversely, Labour took the opportunity to change tack, and has not looked back since. Alfred Sant was replaced by Joseph Muscat, and his idea of an inclusive movement was the spark that took Labour to the next level.

The so-called 25 years of PN governments, interspersed by the short-lived Alfred Sant government, were a blessing to Muscat. Even if Labour had just sat back and did nothing, with all that was happening in the PN between 2008 and 2013 it was clear that the following election would go its way. And so it did, with Labour winning with the (then) largest majority ever achieved.

There are two main reasons for this.

The Labour Party maintains its core voters whatever the circumstances, and then also started to eat into the PN share of the political pie.

Now, we all know that the Labour grassroots form a bigger chunk of the Maltese electorate, much bigger than the group of hardline Nationalist voters. Labour families are traditionally bigger in number, and this has always given the PL a demographic advantage.

Added to this, Labour also managed to attract a sizeable number of people who came from Nationalist backgrounds. The fact that some candidates who were on the PL ballot sheet in 2013 openly confessed that they were coming from a Nationalist fold pushed many into changing their allegiance to Labour that year.

 

Eight years

And it has not changed since.

In spite of the list of scandals the Labour government was involved in during these past eight years, it is clear that the electorate still prefers to have the PL leading the country. We have moved on from Joseph Muscat, who resigned in shame after winning the prize of the man of the year for corruption, to Robert Abela, and although the latter lacks the charisma of his predecessor, he is still by far seen as better than his Nationalist counterpart.

Whereas Muscat was able to keep the same distance between the PL and the PN – those 35,000 plus votes – Abela has managed to increase the gap even further, according to the surveys. We still have to see whether these numbers will be confirmed when the election is held, but it all points in that direction.

The PL has been clever to target specific sectors of society in order to widen its base. The way it projected the idea that it had created a new middle class – with people moving up the social level – instilled an increased sense of well-being, especially in the lower rungs of society, where Labour traditionally has a stronger following. The way it dished out financial “gifts” all throughout its two terms in office also had a bearing.

Unions have caused little trouble to Labour in these last eight years. The General Workers Union, traditionally close to the PL, is in hibernation. Other workers’ organisations were slightly more vocal but we had nothing which could be described as unrest in the employment world. It was all plain-sailing for Labour.

Most people then looked the other way when Labour, regularly, was involved in scandalous situations. To be fair, these mostly took place under Joseph Muscat’s leadership, although Robert Abela has had to carry the burden when he took over.

Elsewhere, such events would have pushed more voters towards the Opposition; not in Malta, apparently.

 

The PN

This is largely because the Nationalist Party still appears, to many, as being fragmented and unreliable.

In spite of a double change of leadership, the PN has failed to renew itself, and its more prominent representatives are the same ones that were rejected in 2013.

The PN, as it is today, does not inspire confidence. It is being pro-active, and some of the ideas it is putting forward should be given consideration. But then, to a society that has become more liberal, there are certain aspects in which the PN has remained anchored in the past.

Added to this, from an administrative point of view, Labour has committed few mistakes. Excluding the scandals which, it must be said, were huge, the PL has taken the country forward. So many voters would rather stick to Labour, with all its defects, than go for a party that is internally disjointed and lacks the same credibility the PL enjoys.

With Labour projecting itself as the party of stability and the PN not generating the oomph one expects from a party in opposition and waiting to take over, it is not a surprise that Labour is closing in on another victory which, surveys in hand, could again establish a record.

 

Third parties

There is another reason why Labour’s lead continues to grow.

This is the ineffective presence of third parties. In spite of the efforts of their enthusiastic handful of activists, third parties remain too weak, even weaker than civil society groups who in the past couple of years have been instrumental in highlighting the challenges the country is facing, in particular the rule of law.

Few would think of switching to third parties and, added to this, these last two elections have shown that there were more voters who moved from PN to PL, rather than the other way round, a phenomenon that seems to be prevalent ahead of the next election too.

This is why, as things stand today, Labour is moving dangerously close to winning with a two-thirds majority in the House, with all the consequences that this will bring with it.