The election hype is mounting again, in similar fashion as it did towards the end of summer last year.

That time, it was the Nationalist Party, which was pushing the idea of a November election, and the momentum had increased so much that it spurred Prime Minister Robert Abela to make it clear that the election will be held in 2022.

That statement effectively killed the rumours and the waters calmed down for us to have a quieter Christmas season, apart from the Covid pandemic and all that it brought with it.

But now that we’re in the middle of the second month of the year, the rumour mill has again started to turn. Some believed that the day the PM had in mind was 12 March – possibly because two of the last three elections were held in the first half of that month – but that ship has now sailed.

An election campaign, according to our laws, must be at least 33 days long and so last Monday was the last effective day when a 12 March election could have been called.

With the pope slated to visit Malta in the first weekend of April and Easter to fall on 17 April, the rumour mongers have now come up with May as being the most likely time the election will be held. It is all speculation as, although the PM must have already made up his mind, he is not saying much.

What we know for sure is that it will be held by June – that is as far as the PM has gone when asked about it. Maybe a few close advisers and other top Labour people already know the date, but nothing has transpired from Hamrun or Castille.

Surveys continue to he conducted and there is no doubt that there will be more by the time the election is held.

The latest one has shown that the Nationalist Party has cut Labour’s lead by 10,000 votes – but that would still leave it far behind, as Labour would be set to win the election with the same margin it did in both 2013 and 2017: around 35,000-36,000 votes.

The PN appeared happy with the outcome of the latest survey, but it’s like losing a football game 5-1 instead of 5-0. If that survey result is confirmed in the election, the PN would be in the same position as it was five years ago, in spite of a double change of leadership.

It would go to prove that, in spite of the scandals that have rocked the nation and given Malta such a bad name on the international stage, Labour is still the preferred choice of most Maltese while the PN is still not considered as an alternative government.

The trust rating in the last survey also showed that the Prime Minister has lost ground while the Opposition Leader has improved his status, but the difference between the two is still huge.

Many weeks remain between now and the election and so many things can change. We believe that most of the voters have already made up their mind as to where their allegiance lies. The parties now will have to convince the rest, the so-called floating voters.

The PL, in government, enjoys the power of incumbency, which it is already using, such as by handing out so many goodies in the form of tax rebates and cash gifts. There will also be promises of jobs and permits. Each time an election is approaching there are calls for a revision of the situation. But the party in government has so much to lose if it gives up its strategic benefit which comes from its occupation of Castille – and so nothing is done about it.

It also has the advantage of a national media – PBS – that is blatantly in its favour and, given the viewership and listenership, the PL is in a position to exert more influence on the voters. The PN has now resorted to taking the matter to court and, although the PN’s submissions have been treated as being urgent, we doubt that PBS will change tack and start providing balance in its reporting, as well as in its current affairs programmes.

Now that an agreement has been reached, via Parliament, for voters infected with Covid-19 and others potentially in quarantine to still be able to cast their preference, everything seems to be in place for the Maltese to choose the government of their choice for the next five years.

Apart from choosing the winning party, the voters will also select the MPs who will be representing them. Their overall number is unknown, given the possibility that more can be added to the 65 elected from the 13 districts, both as a result of adjustments needed to satisfy proportional representation requirements and additional seats to be awarded to women.

All we need now is the date.