That the tourism industry is picking up nicely after the mayhem brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic is welcome news.

The latest statistics show that in the first eight months of this year the number of tourists was nearly 91% of the total that had visited Malta in 2019, used as a reference year for the pre-Covid situation. In terms of nights spent in Malta, the figure is slightly lower, at nearly 87% of the 2019 result, with expenditure hitting 96.1% of what was spent three years ago.

So we seem to be getting there. We all know that the tourism industry is one of the main pillars of our economy, providing thousands of jobs, and it was worrying that its many sectors were badly hit when airports were closed and ports were shut at the height of the Covid spread.

In the last full year before the Covid pandemic, Malta welcomed nearly 2.8 million tourists. We will not reach that figure this year, maybe the next.

But now there is so much talk about accommodating 4.7 million tourists every year, almost double the number we had three years ago.

The figure was released in the presentation of a study carried out by Deloitte on behalf of the Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association.

The study took into consideration the existing bed-stock and added to it the number of tourist beds Malta will have if permits, currently before the Planning Authority for the building of new hotels, are all approved. It found that Malta, a few years down the road, would need 4.7 million tourists, staying at an average of just under seven nights, to cover 80% of the occupancy.

We ask: Do we really want to go there?

Malta is already being stretched to the limit, as things stand now. Can we sustain a near doubling of the number of tourists who visit Malta?

A total of 4.7 million tourists would, on average, mean more than 390,000 tourists every month, almost 100,000 every week. Malta’s population currently stands at 500,000 and growing. Imagine nearly 600,000 people living on this small rock at any given week (and, remember, this is just the average, because in the summer months, when tourist numbers rise, there will be more than 100,000 of them visiting).

Malta is not equipped to meet such a demand. Just think of the traffic issues we will have. We are already experiencing the frustration of growing traffic jams; now think of what we will go through if the number of tourists had to almost double.

The effect on the infrastructure is only part of the problem that we will have to face.

Let’s think of what will happen if the 4.7 million target is not reached, and hotels, which would have invested millions in their product and services, have to face lower numbers. There will be some who will certainly cut down on their prices in a bid to attract visitors. This would mean that they would be unable to provide service at its best. Standards will inevitably drop. Some of the hotels – old or new – would have to shut up shop. We will have abandoned hotels added to the hundreds of buildings which lie in a dilapidated state.

The study showed that, as things were in 2019, when the total number of tourists was 2.8 million, certain tourism areas were already deemed to be overcrowded. These include popular beaches, historical places and urban areas. If there was overcrowding with 2.8 million what will we call it when we welcome 4.7 million?

Malta might have a few good months, possibly years, but soon word will spread that the country would have lost its charisma (we like to think that, although Malta has lost so much of its attractiveness in the past years, it is still in a position to compete) and tourists will no longer consider it as an ideal destination for a holiday. A few reviews of bad experiences in Malta, so powerful in today’s social media, will be enough to put people off.

Government knows that Malta would collapse under the weight of 4.7 million annual tourists. The minister responsible for the sector, Clayton Bartolo, said that government does not want to go in that direction.

Still, it does not seem to want to address to situation. For one thing, there is no holistic plan on the sector. It’s a free country, so any investors can take the risks all they like with their money, but government should be providing the framework on which they would be able to make a more-informed decision before going for it.

We must, however, first of all agree that the idea of having 4.7 million tourists per year is pure madness.