Last year, Malta registered the lowest voter turnout ever in a general election since Independence.

The percentage of eligible voters who went to the polls fell to a low of 85% in March 2022. From a total of around 355,000 voters, the number of who exercised their right to vote reached 304,000, with nearly 10,000 of them invalidating their vote.

This meant that one in nearly seven voters preferred to stay at home; it was as if two whole districts from a total of 13 that form our electoral map had chosen not to participate in the national poll. The drop in the turnout was registered in districts that lean both towards the Labour Party, as well as the Nationalist Party.

In Malta’s case, an 85% turnout is considered low, seeing that in all previous elections since 1971 voter participation had always surpassed 90 per cent, at times even 95%.

The 85% election turnout in 2022 had been interpreted as a strong message of disillusion. The voters who had ignored their country’s call to choose their government were telling politicians that they have no trust in any of them. They were unhappy with Labour, with all its scandals, nepotism and corruption, but they were also unhappy with the Nationalists, seen as divided, uninspired and lacking the vision to lead Malta.

We are now more or less midway between the last election and the next time people will be asked to make their voice heard. The European Parliament and local council elections will be held in May 2024, and they will serve as a gauge of public sentiment too. Turnouts for EP and local council elections have historically always been lower, hovering around the 70% threshold.

The voter turnout in the 2024 election will determine whether the 2022 election low participation was just a one-off, or whether a pattern has been set. If the number of people who will cast their preferences in 2024 will drop substantially, when compared to previous turnouts in previous EP and local council elections, then it would certainly mean that the trend that started last year would have continued, and would likely be then confirmed in the 2027 polls.

Judging by the results of a survey that was published by MaltaToday last Sunday, it seems that we are heading in that direction. Voter aversion to politics, politicians and political parties is on the rise.

According to respondents of the survey, non-voters account for nearly 24% of the electorate. This would mean a mighty jump – from one in every seven voters to one in nearly four voters.

That young voters are the cohort with the largest proportion of non-voters – a staggering 38% – is also highly indicative of the way things are going. While the older generations seem to be more inclined towards fulfilling their responsibility towards their nation by voting, even if they might not be too keen with how their party is performing, the younger generations have no such qualms and are more prepared to forfeit their right to vote simply because they believe that neither of the two big parties, and none of the rest, deserve a preference.

It seems clear enough that both the Labour Party and Nationalist Party are losing popularity, while the smaller parties are not attracting voters. More and more voters are abandoning the party they, or their families, traditionally voted for, and rather than move to the other side or pick one of the smaller parties, are simply choosing not to have a political preference.

As long as the economy keeps going the way it is – in spite of the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine – Labour will remain the most preferred party. It may lose support, but it will continue to garner enough backing to keep it at Castille.

With the Nationalists not being able to become more relevant they continue to be perceived as not fit to govern.  Not even the abortion debate, which in other times would have given the PN a much-needed push, managed to lift the party up.

That now, according to the MaltaToday survey, the number of people who say they will not vote is larger than the number of voters who say they will give their preference to the PN shows that in spite of being in Opposition for 10 years, the PN has failed to regenerate itself.

The PN’s weakness is giving Labour more power to do whatever it wants, changing laws to fit its purposes and introducing others that were not on the list of pledges in the electoral manifesto.

It is not a good time for Malta.