The year that is about to begin will bring with it two elections on the same day: the one that will elect Malta’s six representatives at the European Parliament, and the one that will elect local councils for the following five years.

The two elections, slated for 8 June, will arrive more or less in the middle of the current legislature. Although they cannot be compared to a general election, they will give a strong indication of what people are thinking. Surveys have been held and will continue to be held, but elections give a much clearer picture.

Voter turnout

Voter participation in European Parliament and local council elections has always been lower than that in general elections. But, given what happened in 2022, there is now more curiosity on what the turnout will be in 2024.

In the last general election, in March 2022, voter turnout was the lowest in half a century. One from every seven voters did not cast their preference which, in terms of numbers, means that roughly two electoral districts abstained. In all elections held between 1971 and 2017, voter turnout was always above 90 per cent; in 2022, it dropped by seven percentage points to 85 per cent.

It was considered to be a sign of disgruntlement. It was also a sign that people are fed up with politics, political parties and politicians. It meant that 15 per cent of the voters are not bothered with who is running the country – they think that no-one deserves it.

People will be voting in a different scenario next June. What is at stake is not the running of the country. History has taught us that public participation in such elections hovers around 70 per cent. But the turnout in June will give another indication as to whether the Maltese people have continued to move away from politics.

If the turnout is in line with previous EP and local council elections, or perhaps better, one would be led to think that the 2022 election was just a one-off. But if the turnout in June drops by a few percentage points, maybe by more than the seven per cent experienced between 2017 and 2022, then a trend would be set.

4-2 or 3-3?

The turnout is only one of the factors that will characterise the next election.

One question that will be answered is whether the Labour Party, which has been winning one election after another in comfort, will manage to maintain its four seats in the European Parliament. In two of three elections in which Malta had six seats (2009 and 2019), the PL won four seats against the Nationalists’ two; it was only in 2014 that the PN, not without a struggle, was able to settle the score at 3-3.

Labour is confident that it will again have four representatives elected in June, while the Nationalist Party is cautiously optimistic that it stands a change of electing its third MEP. As usual, it largely depends on how votes are inherited, with our electoral system allowing cross-party voting that oftentimes has meant that the final outcome is not necessarily similar to the first preferences obtained.

The 4-2 or 3-3 scenario will have its own repercussions in the wider context.

A 4-2 win for Labour, particularly if obtained easily, will strengthen its hold on national politics, and that of Robert Abela as leader, as he tries to build his image further and eclipse what was achieved by his predecessor Joseph Muscat.

It must be said that this will be the first EP election with Abela as PL leader, and any signs that he is losing his grip, not to mention his popularity, will not be taken lightly. And this is also because, in Malta, elections are always valued in general terms, even when they are specific, such as the EP (and local councils) is. In a nutshell, a 3-3 result would be taken as a defeat for Labour, and in particular to Abela, as he would have fared worse than Muscat.

Conversely, a 3-3 outcome would be taken as a victory for the Nationalist Party, as it would see it is having taken a step forward to move closer to Labour. Apart from the significance of electing a third representative, for the PN it would be a boost as it seeks to reduce the gap that, since 2013, has always been considerable.

Labour Party

The Labour Party has lost its top two candidates since the last election: Miriam Dalli, who was elected with a record number of votes (for PL candidates) but later quit to become a minister, and Alfred Sant, who has called it quits.

This opens up the race for Labour’s seats wide open. Dalli and Sant, between them, had picked up 90,000 of the 141,000 first preferences Labour candidates had received in 2019. All these are now up for grabs as Labour candidates vie to gain as many of them as possible.

Three of Labour’s MEPs – Josianne Cutajar, Alex Agius Saliba and Cyrus Engerer – will start with an advantage over the rest of the candidates, as their exposure is more widespread. But it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be re-elected. Labour is fielding other candidates who will mount a solid competition.

Nationalist Party

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and, to a lesser extent, veteran MEP David Casa (who has been a permanent fixture at the EP since the first election in 2004) start off as the favourites. Metsola’s popularity has soared tremendously since 2019, when she had picked up 38,000 of the 98,000 first preferences given to PN candidates.

In June she might even challenge the 68,000 votes that Simon Busuttil had obtained in 2009, the overall record.

Other PN candidates will bank on the number two preferences they will receive from Metsola’s surplus. It all then depends whether the PN obtains two or three seats.

Other candidates

Of course, candidates who are contesting on behalf of the smaller parties or on an individual level hope that there will be a 4-1-1 or 3-2-1 scenario, with one of them picking a spot in Europe.

Since the election will be held on a national level, it is thought that candidates who represent smaller parties or content independently stand a better chance of being elected.

In fact, in 2004, when Malta elected only five representatives, Arnold Cassola – then with Alternattiva Demokratika – had come close to being elected. He had obtained the fourth highest number of first preferences, and ended up finishing sixth after all the votes had been transferred. Had it happened today, he would have been elected.

In June, Cassola will be one of many candidates who will contest the election not on behalf of the PL and the PN.

EP (and local council) elections have often provided the chance for voters to experiment, or at least not vote for a candidate representing a political party they normally support. The June election will offer another possibility.

Local councils

The local council elections also offer a gauge of public opinion. Yet, it seems that as the years roll by fewer and fewer people are interested in contesting such elections. Both major political parties are finding it hard to find candidates for the upcoming election, and there is a risk that some localities would not need an election as the number of candidates would be enough to fill the allotted seats, or even lower than that.

Local councils have often been used by younger people as a stepping stone towards national politics, but the difficulty being encountered by the PL and PN to find interested youngsters is putting this trend into doubt.

Mayors and deputy mayors have complained in recent years that the importance of local councils has been drastically reduced, as a more centralised type of politics was adopted by the Labour government.

The last decade or so has followed the same tendency as the national election, with Labour doing well and winning localities which previously had a Nationalist base. The next round of elections will tell us whether the situation has changed.