The political events since the turn of the New Year have certainly been interesting.  A surprise reshuffle first, Prime Minister Robert Abela then opened the door for the return of people who he kicked out himself. It signifies a change in political strategy when compared to the past four years.

When he succeeded Joseph Muscat at the start of 2020, Abela took a political course where he was clearly less tolerant of wrongdoing by his MPs than his predecessor was. Chris Cardona resigned first, and Konrad Mizzi was then unceremoniously booted out, but others later met the similar fates: Rosianne Cutajar, Justyne Caruana, Joseph Cuschieri all tendered their resignation in the midst of scandals; Edward Zammit Lewis and Carmelo Abela were consigned to the back benches as questions swirled around them, while Alex Muscat was also excluded perhaps due to past associations with Keith Schembri.

Yet now, while the latter three remain on the back benches, Joseph Cuschieri has returned to lead a government agency and Abela has opened the door for Rosianne Cutajar and Justyne Caruana to return as well all within the same week.

So what has led to this sudden change of tack? One can speculate that the main reason behind this is an attempt to combat the growing discontent within the Labour Party’s grassroots. Polls show that Labour’s lead is narrowing, that voter abstention is increasing in part because a third of those who voted for the party in 2022 are now saying that they will not vote.

The criticism of Abela and his government has been on a number of fronts, but one less spoken of front is that the party’s diehards were not happy with people like Rosianne Cutajar and Justyne Caruana being shown the door. The scandals were not seen as resignation-worthy by some of the core voters, and more so the fact that Abela pushed for them to leave was seen as him pandering to the Nationalist Party – a big no-no if you’re a Labour diehard.

Let it be clear: the scandals in question were certainly resignation worthy, and if we are to seek a higher standard of politics then neither Cutajar nor Caruana should return to the political scene.

But marry the desire to mitigate core voter abstention with the fact that an election which will serve as something of a mid-yearly litmus test for both major party leaders is just six months away, and one can see why Abela may be enticed to consider it.

It’s no coincidence that Abela’s reconciliatory statements to both Cutajar and Caruana come at a time when his party is seemingly lacking punchy candidates for the MEP elections.  Alex Agius Saliba is currently the party’s only confirmed experienced name on the ballot sheet: Cyrus Engerer has not confirmed whether he will recontest for his seat – and either way, his name never particularly excited Labour’s diehards – and Steve Ellul, while touted as being popular, is still a new name to politics.

The news that Josianne Cutajar will not recontest her seat will have come as a shock, and it is what might have motivated Abela to open the door to fellow Gozitan Justyne Caruana. From a strategic standpoint, the party cannot afford to not have a Gozitan on the ballot sheet. 

One can question whether there is a better candidate than someone who had to resign as a Minister not once, but twice due to scandals, but if Labour’s ballot sheet in Gozo in 2022 is something to go by, the pickings are slim: Three out of the six candidates (Jo Etienne Abela, Anton Refalo, Clint Camilleri) are now Ministers, the fourth (Abigail Camilleri) is an MP who doesn’t have the requisite pull power to replace Josianne Cutajar, the fifth (Christian Zammit) is no longer part of the party, and the sixth (George Paul Camilleri) only managed to pull 38 votes at the polls.

Could we see Justyne Caruana – and maybe even Rosianne Cutajar – return to the ballot sheets in June?  It’s difficult to say, but the chances are likely not anywhere close to zero.

Will Abela’s change in strategy pay off in terms of votes?  It will win him no plaudits among those critical of these scandals – but those same voters are probably not his target demographic at the moment. 

Will it win back some Labour voters who had said they would abstain?  We can only know for certain come June.