The Nationalist Party has set itself a target for the coming elections in June.

The top priority is to grab three of the six seats in the European Parliament. The second aim is to win back the majority in localities which it dominated in the early years of local councils, but which it subsequently lost to the Labour Party.

On a wider scale, electing three representatives at the EP carries more weight than taking back the reins of a locality or two.

Four EP elections have been held since Malta became an EU member is 2004. The PL has obtained a majority of votes in all of them. In the first election, Malta had five available seats, with Labour winning three of them.

In the other three elections, when Malta was given six seats, on two occasions Labour won four of them against the PN’s two (2009 and 2019). The only time that the two major parties shared the six seats equally was in 2014 when, although Labour won with a 34,000 vote margin, the way the votes were inherited gave the PN a third seat by a whisker.

Whether winning a third seat in the European Parliament would be enough to be of satisfaction to the PN remains to be seen. This is because it ultimately depends on how this seat is obtained. A repetition of the 2014 result – with a heavy vote margin between the two parties – should not make the PN happy. It would mean that the situation has not changed much from what is has been in the last decade.

This consistent gap between the two parties has characterised national politics in recent years. The PN’s last victory was in 2008, and this arrived with a mere 1,500 votes. Since then, the PL has regularly won handsomely, establishing one record margin after the other. In 2022, it won the general election with a 39,000-vote advantage.

The PN should be satisfied only if, possibly together with this third EP seat, the voting pattern shows that it has made hefty inroads into Labour’s staggering lead. Unless the difference between the two parties is cut down substantially, giving the PN some hope and denting the PL’s confidence, it would still be a heavy loss for the PN.

This is where the questions arise. The PN has been in Opposition for more than a decade, and yet its crisis persists. It has moved from being led by Lawrence Gonzi, to Simon Busuttil, to Adrian Delia and now to Bernard Grech – four leaders in 10 years, which is more than the PN had between World War II and the turn of the century – but it is still not seen as a credible alternative government.

That this is happening in spite of the Labour Party and the government being embroiled in so many scandals, since taking over the country in 2013, is even more worrying. But it is clear that the PN’s message is not coming across or, if it is, this message is not being accepted. Labour’s faults, deficiencies and, let’s say it, corruption are still “preferred” by the majority of the electorate over the PN.

The internal strife that hit the PN in the last years has affected its standing among the non-partisan voters, who have continued to choose Labour, regardless of Labour’s own difficulties, which culminated in the resignation of Joseph Muscat in 2020.

The PN’s financial woes have not helped either, and although we have not heard much about them in recent times, they have not been overcome. Just take a look at how many billboards the Labour Party has all over Malta to encourage supporters to attend its 1 May manifestation in Valletta and compare them to the few the PN has about its event in Mosta on the same day – and you get the gist of the difference in financial capabilities between the two main parties.

Then again, having set itself a three-seat target, what will happen if this is not attained? Grech has already survived one electoral defeat. Will he stay on if Labour wins 4-2 and there is no substantial change to the voting pattern? And, if he doesn’t, who will take his place?

Hardliners believe that the only candidate for the job who can make a difference is Roberta Metsola, who is feared so much by the PL that she is politically attacked more than Grech is. But, so far, she has not taken up the task, and one also has to see where her future international career can take her. Of course, others may show an interest if push comes to shove, but they are waiting for the right moment to speak of their intentions.

Until then, Grech has the onus to lead the party to June’s elections with the hope that it is doing enough to win a third seat as well as cut down on Labour’s massive lead. It is only after the election results are out that the PN will consider its future.