This week’s European Parliament elections have a particular significance and importance like never before. The higher interest is probably linked to the increased visibility of the EU in recent years due to multiple crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
During those crises, one could discern increased levels of interest in and awareness of these elections, as well as of the impact of the European Union on everyday life. Taking part in the elections will be a chance to stand up for all the issues important to EU citizens. Everyone, especially young people, should understand and grasp the duty to vote and, in doing so, shape the Union they want to live in. They must realise that the 2024 EU elections will influence the EU for the next decade and will have a key impact on their lives.
It is time to put an end to the belief that a vote will not change anything, to a lack of interest in politics in general and distrust of politics, as well as to the belief that what happens in the European Parliament does not concern us. The EU had dealt with the impact of Brexit, the coronavirus crisis, and the need to ensure that the population was vaccinated and economies recovered after the pandemic. It also responded unitedly to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. All these elements show that the EU is much more important to people today than it was five years ago, meaning that the importance of the European Parliament and its members has grown and will continue to grow.
Cost-of-living woes are focusing European voters’ minds as they see their own standard of living in decline and expect it to decrease even further. However, there is increasing optimism that the European Union will be able to deliver. Voting in the coming elections will not be a confirmation that everything is well and good but, rather, a story of expectation and also of learned trust. Voting will make things go in the right direction.
Our vote will be our voice in responding to the aftermath in EU institutions after being rocked by a graft scandal at the European Parliament known as "Qatargate." We will have our say in the fight against corruption and disinformation across other EU institutions.
One of the root problems in deciding how to vote is that relatively few people are truly familiar with the internal structure of the European Parliament, and even fewer know where the Left-Right divide is actually situated on most issues.
Presently, the four leftist parties in Parliament have 355 combined seats, while the three right-wing groups have 305 between them. In practice, however, things are not as balanced as one would assume. In 88% of cases, the centre-right EPP votes together with the socialists, liberals, greens, and far-left. So, if we add the EPP seats to the leftist tally, the conservatives are suddenly outnumbered 531 to 128.
The Maltese electorate voting in these elections will, in the majority of cases, cast their vote according to their local party affiliation or allegiance. Others will have their own personal ambitions. Yet the fact remains that today's European Parliament is no longer a Mickey Mouse parliament. It is becoming increasingly influential, and it co-legislates everything. Therefore, it is important to go out and vote to change what we can while maintaining realistic expectations because the Commission cannot be so easily reformed.
2024 can be the year when positive change finally begins. After the Conference on the Future of Europe, it is the next big test for supranational democracy. For the tenth time since 1979, voters will be called to the polls to choose the members of the EU’s only directly elected supranational institution. While past elections have often suffered from strong national fragmentation and a reputation for being "second-order" votes, they are still the central legitimising act through which all European citizens can have a say in the political direction of the EU.
Politically, the election casts a long shadow. Electoral reforms are being discussed, and candidates are pondering their chances. And as is almost always the case with EU elections, the inter-institutional struggles are no less important than the party-political competition.
Since the last election, strong newcomer parties have emerged in several member states, such as Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Slovenia. In 2024, many of them will enter parliament for the first time and try to join a European party family. However, given that these newcomer parties represent a variety of ideologies across the entire political spectrum, they are unlikely to upset the overall balance between parliamentary groups.
Whether the EPP will really win the election is still a wide-open question, however. Its lead over the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is dwindling. If the race remains this tight, the S&D could have a chance to regain its position as the strongest parliamentary group for the first time since 1999.
Another big question for the 2024 elections is voter turnout and how to incentivize voters to cast their ballots. This time, though, there will be no lack of salient European issues. Topics like the rule of law crisis, the budget deficit rules, the European Green Deal, or the crisis of the common asylum system are not just a matter for Brussels-based experts but are being discussed in the national public arenas as well. Similarly, external border protection and issues of foreign and security policy like the war in Ukraine are increasingly seen as European rather than only national affairs. Finally, the Conference on the Future of Europe has produced an extensive set of reform proposals in many policy areas, which parties will be able to take up in their campaigns.
This could increase voter turnout by turning the 2024 election into a real competition to find solutions for political questions that matter to all European citizens.
Not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender.
Dr Mark Said is a lawyer