On Thursday 4th July, 2024 as the American citizens celebrate Independence Day, UK citizens across the Atlantic ocean will be going to the polls to select a new government for the next five years. The incumbent conservative leader and Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is seeking re-election after the party he represents has been in power for fourteen years. On the other hand, sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party is aspiring to head to No.10 Downing Street, the next day.
As has been the case in the local scenario, the voting population is highly reluctant to trust their fate in the hands of a political party that is visibly and clearly in shambles within itself. Rishi Sunak represents the fourth leader in less than five years. Following the Brexit referendum, Theresa May did not manage to get a deal with the EU which was to the approval of her fellow members of parliament. She had to resign amid a revolt against her within the party. That triggered a leadership race which was won by Boris Johnson who in 2019 managed to achieve an outright majority for the Conservative party only to end up resigning post the Partygate scandal which eradicated the general public’s trust in him as PM, and to a certain extent in the whole political establishment as a whole. Another leadership race was conducted in the middle of 2022 between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak with the former winning that contest – only to last in office for fifty days due to her radical moves of implementing economic reform without seeking the approval of the independent watchdog known as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Although, Liz Truss was perfectly right that the UK needs economic growth, her modus operandi brought her demise with the conservative party eventually electing Rishi Sunak as leader and PM.
Needless to say such political chaos brought about economic chaos to an already ailing economy. Indeed, this is the electoral battle horse of the Labour Party. The sorry state of affairs the UK finds itself has given enough fuel for the Labour Party to fetch a possible mandate from the British people to allow them to serve them from Westminster. Although there is no magical wand that will translate into fresh economic growth, what the Labour Party can promise is that the next Labour cabinet will be closely knit around Sir Keir Starmer with a fresh band of politicians that are highly competent in their own right. Key amongst them will be the possible next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. As long as the next Labour cabinet stick together in delivering the much desired economic growth than there is a higher possibility of success.
However, it is worth mentioning that although both parties have been throughout the electoral campaign debating about how they intend achieving such desired fresh economic growth, both have been very careful in not mentioning BREXIT in the process. The dire situation the UK finds itself at the moment is indeed a direct consequence of leaving the European Union; no significant form of growth has been registered since then with COVID-19 making things even worse!
Just as it is very difficult to identify what is the cost of staying out of the EU just the same the UK could have never identified what is the cost of leaving the Union! One of the arguments put forward by the LEAVE campaign prior to the 2016 referendum, was about illegal immigration. Ironically enough, statistics show that whilst 75,000 EU citizens had to leave the UK, the influx of immigrants post BREXIT has increased exponentially! Even in terms of trade of goods, the increased trade with non-EU jurisdictions has not been enough to make up for the loss of trade the UK had with the EU, prior to BREXIT!
So, if as the polls suggest the Labour Party is heading for a landslide victory on Thursday, Sir Keir Starmer has to fetch closer ties with the European Union so as to possibly induce increased economic growth that will assist his government to support their six point plan.
With the advent of REFORM UK, headed by a staunch Euro-sceptic, Nigel Farage, the conservatives are losing even more of their core vote. However, one common factor amongst all existing polls is that there is still a significant amount of undecided voters. According to Farage, ‘something is happening out there…’ with both Starmer and Sunak sending out heartfelt appeals to the undecided to decide between ‘change’ and ‘continuity’, respectively.
As experienced locally with the recent MEP electoral result, the way these undecided voters make their choice once at the polling booths, the eventual election result will be decided. Although, a hung parliament is highly unlikely, yet it is still possible that a complete wipe out of the conservative party doesn’t materialise, neither. As the English saying goes ‘a week in politics is a long time’. Indeed, with the questions raised by the audience during the last BBC debate between Starmer and Sunak, it became even clearer that Thursday’s vote will be decided by the undecided!!!
Dr.Ivan Grixti is a senior lecturer in Financial Accounting at the University of Malta