The results of the MEP elections, where the PN narrowed the gap between it and the PL to just 8,454 votes was a shock to everyone.  The political debate suddenly was re-framed in a new context: no longer was it a matter of 'by how much will the PL win the next general election?' but it became 'could the PN actually win?'.

The next general election is scheduled to take place in March 2027, if Prime Minister Robert Abela were to see out his full legislature.  That's just over two-and-a-half years away - that two-and-a-half years is a long time in politics.

Speculating about a general election result from now would be a wasted exercise: so much can change till then. One of the key questions will be whether Abela can keep the people happy enough with his leadership, but more so whether he can keep his own house in line.

One of the key moments in the case of the latter is fast approaching.  The PL's delegates will elect two new deputy leaders come mid-September: one for parliamentary affairs - who must be an MP and who will end up being the Deputy Prime Minister - and one for party affairs - who, right now, cannot be an MP.

Within the context of one of the apparent factors of the PL's disappearing majority being that it is out of touch with its grassroots, the election of the latter post - a post which is traditionally given less importance and attention in the public sphere - may be just as important, if not more important than the former.

So far, former PL secretary general and head of the party's media arm Jason Micallef has thrown his hat into the ring.  That alone is telling: Micallef is not known to be particularly fond of Abela or his leadership, and is far more aligned with his predecessor Joseph Muscat.

Proof of that is ample: Micallef was front and centre when hundreds greeted Muscat in front of the law courts as he faced charges on the Vitals hospitals deal for the first time prior to the MEP elections.  He even sat inside the courtroom, next to Muscat's wife Michelle, in support of the former Prime Minister.

At the same time, Abela has tried to move his administration away from the Muscat legacy, which is now reaching a reckoning and which some in the party believe is serving to drive away the moderate voters who had given the PL its huge mandate of power in the last decade in the first place.

One can draw the conclusion that Abela is not particularly fond of Micallef either: when asked about his candidacy - which at the time had not been confirmed - Abela left little to interpret: "You asked me about a specific person, but I think my reply counts in general, when your time is up and you've given your contribution, don't come back," he said.

But ultimately, it will not be Abela who chooses the deputy leader - it will be the party's delegates.  There is precedent for those delegates to not necessary back the leader's horse of choice.  We need only to look at how Chris Fearne was elected as deputy leader, despite being the dark horse in a three-person race, for evidence of this.

It will be interesting to see who could put their hat in the ring to contest against Micallef, and more so how the politics within the party itself will play out.  What message will the party delegates send to Abela?  How will the result of the deputy leadership elections affect his leadership?  How will that affect the eventual 2027 general election?

It will still be too early to tell, particularly with regards to the latter: but make no mistake this is an important juncture for Abela.