Surveys are always a subject of general interest and discussion, more so when they deal with the political situation.

Over the years we have learnt, however, that they are not always correct, and not always close enough to the truth.

The real surveys are those where people actually vote, or choose not to.

The latest example was the European Parliament and local council elections. None of the pre-electoral surveys captured the people's mood. None of them had indicated that the Labour Party's advantage would have been chopped down from 42,000 to 8,400 in the MEP election, and from 47,000 to 20,000 in the local councils.

There have been times when surveys predicted the wrong outcome, such as what happened when the country voted in a referendum on the abolition of spring hunting in 2015. All published surveys had forecast a win for the anti-hunting group, but in the end it was the other side which celebrated.

So, as much as surveys generate attention and interpretations - with many unable to be unbiased - they have to be taken for what they are.

Last Sunday, Malta Today published the results of its latest survey, which showed the Nationalist Party in front by more than 11,000 votes. At the same time, survey participants however replied that they trust Prime Minister Robert Abela with the running of the country more than they do with Opposition Leader Bernard Grech.

Nationalist Party exponents were quick to try to dampen the euphoria of seeing their party, after a very long time, having an advantage over the PL, saying that there is still so much to do between now and the next election. From the Labour end, there was almost complete silence, as if the party wanted to ignore the survey completely.

We are more or less midway through a legislature, one that so far has been characterised by events that have made an impact on the collective psyche, and this was also reflected in the way people voted last June.

Among them, one can mention the conclusion of the magisterial inquiry into the hospitals' deal and the subsequent arraignment of former Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, together with former ministers and other top government officials. But there were other happenings that had an effect on how people think - the way the Jean Paul Sofia death was handled by the Prime Minister, for example; scandals related to social benefits, driving tests and the transferring of driving penalty points are also fresh examples that have hit Labour hard.

But the Labour Party has the power of incumbency on its side, and this means that it is in a better position to influence voters. So much so that the government always tries its best to shift attention away from the black marks towards issues that increase its popularity. Last Sunday, for example, as soon as the survey results were making the rounds, the Prime Minister, from New York, announced the date of the budget for 2025 - along with a reiteration of the pledge that there will be tax cuts.

It was an attempt to create a feel-good factor; the tax cuts are also a populist move, one that is intended to impel voters to tick red boxes in the polling booth, never mind that the country's debt has doubled under Abela's nearly five-year tenure, and has now reached more than €10 billion.

Between now and election day in 2027 - at least, that is the year during which we expect the next general election to take place - the government is in the best position to offer treats in a bid to sway the popular vote in its favour. It started doing so and continued to do so when it was winning elections with record margins; so it should not come as a surprise, now that the PL appears to be in difficulty, that cheques will continue to be posted, and that now it is promising tax cuts too.

One extremely important factor that has to be kept in mind always when analysing surveys is the number of respondents who say that they will not vote. Last Sunday's survey puts this number at one-fourth of the voting population, a staggering figure indeed. These are the people that both parties will be targeting in the next couple of years.

It must also be remembered that people are not always sincere when giving answers over the phone to a complete stranger. Many are afraid of exposing their personal political thoughts, believing that there could be repercussions.

Aside from this, we all know that so many things can change between now and the election. Surveys create discussion and interest, but it's only voting day that will establish which party will govern.