A few weeks ago, Avi Loeb, a Harvard astronomer, suggested that an interstellar object nearing Earth could be an engineered object. He was referring to the 31/ATLAS interstellar object detected by the Deep Random Survey remote telescope in Chile and which he claimed could have an alien origin. The Gemini South telescope then revealed that the object is growing a tail, offering more proof that it is a comet visiting our solar system. Now, 20 scientists have signed a study that the object might be a camouflaged ship.
"31/ATLAS may come to save us or destroy us," says Loeb. "We'd better be ready for both options and check whether all interstellar objects are rocks." 31/ATLAS made news after scientists confirmed it originated outside of our solar system, making it one of only three known interstellar objects discovered in our little slice of space. The object is massive, with scientists estimating it is more than 12 miles wide.
Loeb did not go as far as to claim that the object is an alien technology. However, he did argue that its characteristics raise a question ̶ whether it could have been created by an intelligent civilisation. He even suggested that one possibility could be that the object would discreetly study planetary motion within our system.
I join most of those, including eminent scientists, who were sceptical about Loeb's suggestion. But even if it were the case, I doubt that alien intelligence would bother with human intelligence. It might, instead, be keen on studying our folly, of which there are plenty of examples.
The reference to folly is a nod to historian Barbara Tuchman. In her 1984 survey of monumental failures in decisions and their consequences, "The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam", Tuchman argued that policy making viewed as disastrous only in retrospect does not belong in her pantheon of folly. For her, folly was the consistent and single-minded pursuit of policy contrary to self-interest and advice.
Had she lived longer, Tuchman would have found no shortage of material for a new edition of the book. The themes that haunted her have grown even more pronounced today. Many governments are blind to reality, plenty of institutions act against their own interests, and most leaders are trapped by hubris. From the invasion of Ukraine to the burgeoning climate crisis, from erosion of democracies to reckless confrontations between nuclear powers, the world has continued along the same tragic trajectory of yesteryear. They are deliberate repetitions of mistakes in the face of indisputable knowledge.
Tuchman believed that the tragedies of history are not the result of ignorance but occur because knowledge is ignored or discarded. In this sense, folly is not mere error, but obstinate error contrary to clear and repeated warnings.
If you think I am exaggerating, you may wish to ponder whether it is an exaggeration to say that we are currently living through four crises: the ongoing global climate threat, the likelihood of more severe pandemics such as Covid-19, the backsliding in democracy, and the renewed risk of nuclear war. Aren't these difficulties drawing mankind to the cliff of irreversible catastrophe?
Today's technologies make it easier than ever before in human history to blow up the world or even to erase humanity itself. Yet the danger of human self-destruction is not new. In the 1950s, the American sociologist C. Wright Mills had harsh words for the US's war-mongering elites and the Soviet Union's global class-war-dreaming nomenclature. In his critiques, he described them as ideological mythmakers that, in trying to bend other nations to their will, could end up destroying the world.
Now we have Russia regularly threatening to use nuclear weapons to hold on to its gains in Ukraine; North Korea does the same to protect its hate regime; and Donald Trump ̶ not one to be outdone in bravado ̶ has gleefully joined the sabre-rattling. More recently, Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir told a gathering in Florida that "if we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us" (not just Pakistan's nuclear-armed arch-rival India). Banging on the door of the nuclear club is Iran.
We are back to what the British philosopher Bernard Russell called 'Man's Peril'. In his famous BBC radio speech on 23 December 1954, Russell emphasised that he was talking 'not as a Briton, not as a European, not as a member of a Western democracy, but as a human being, a member of the species Man, whose continued existence is in doubt' because of the potentially catastrophic use of a thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb.
As challenging as the nuclear threat is climate change. Millions of people are experiencing heatwaves, droughts, floods, wildfires, and rising sea levels. The damage to the ecology is widespread. By 2050, 18 million Bangladeshis will have to abandon their land because of rising sea-levels. Malta itself is already experiencing desert-like conditions and is predicted to become so by 2100.
Yet, many countries are falling all over themselves in a headlong rush back to fossil-fuel burning, under the impact of Trump's denunciation of green technology and climate change denial. The EU commitment is wobbling. Thank God for some notable exceptions ̶ China, with its 1.4bn people, is hurtling in the opposite direction, while India also has similar ambitions. However, the global prognosis is dark. Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, rather than being reduced below the 1.5o goal in the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, the statistics show that another large pandemic is more likely than we think. The question is not whether there will be one, but when. Having just exited the Covid 19 pandemic with its 700 million people infected and 7 million deaths, some scientists predict that the next one will kill 50 million people. Of course, with trust in scientists being only 3.62 out of 5, according to the most recent world-wide survey, there is potential for a disastrous response.
Finally, democracies in many parts of the world are under threat. Three respected reports contain stark warnings about global democratic backsliding. V-Dem observes that 'autocratisation continues to be the dominant trend,' Freedom House identifies an 'extensive' deterioration in global freedom, and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) describes a 'general trend of regression and stagnation' in global democracy. Their average score has declined by five percent since 2007.
When democracies are under attack, people's voices are rarely heard by the politicians, and those voices that get listened to are often misinterpreted. Despite all the lip service to citizens' participation, the elites intentionally forget the view of the majority's 'little and ordinary people.' The few who take up the plight of ordinary people and speak truth to power are denigrated and ostracised. In a perversion of the truth, they are described as 'enemies of the people.'
All this makes me wonder whether 31/Atlas might be the occasion for salvation or whether some alien intelligence might destroy humanity before it becomes a threat to intelligence in other parts of the universe. If you, who are reading this, are more optimistic and see a dim light at the end of the tunnel, let me know. Just make sure, though, that it isn't the headlight of the oncoming train.