According to the latest statistics, Malta registered the lowest crime rate in more than 15 years.
The figures ostensibly render our country very safe, where crimes declined from 45 crimes per 1000 persons in 2004 to 37 crimes per 1000 persons in 2012 to 28 crimes per 1000 persons in 2022, the lowest on record. These latest record-low figures even include figures for crimes related to immigration, drugs and money laundering, all of which were not included in previous statistics. Yet, statistics unaccompanied by a proper and comprehensive meaning might easily turn out to be useless.
The initial reaction might easily be that, thanks mainly to increased security efforts by the government and the police corps, our criminality rate is dropping significantly. Another reaction might be that the chart suggests that the positive effects of better economic activity on crime are similar for a broad set of medium-crime levels. This raises the question: can favourable economic conditions help keep future crime at bay? Consistent improvement in the standard of living is key to sustaining crime reduction, especially when crime levels are manageable. The downside of this relationship is, of course, that economic instability or a growth slowdown is detrimental to the security situation.
Not long ago, due to a lack of economic opportunities as well as perceived corruption, it was not surprising that criminal activity had become a viable option for some, potentially explaining why criminality was high.
That aside, it is imperative to glean other vital information from those statistics. The traditional "crime rate" provides information on the number of police-reported incidents that have occurred for a given population. It measures the volume of crime coming to the attention of the police. The rate is simply a count of all criminal incidents reported to and by police, divided by the population of interest. Each criminal incident, regardless of the type or seriousness of the offence, counts at the same rate. For example, one homicide counts as one act of mischief.
Changes in the seriousness of police-reported crimes have been assessed by reviewing offence-specific crime rates. However, it is difficult to create an overall picture of trends in crime severity using this approach.
We should fine-tune our yearly statistics for crime by adopting a Crime Severity Index that would enable us to track changes in the severity of police-reported crime from year to year. It should do so by taking into account not only the change in volume of a particular crime but also the relative seriousness of that crime in comparison to other crimes. The Crime Severity Index would help answer such questions as: is the crime coming to the attention of police more or less serious than before; and are police-reported crimes in a given area or region more or less serious than in Malta overall? Such an index would not replace but rather complement existing measures of crime. It would provide a different way of looking at crime and address some of the limitations of the traditional crime rate.
Although statistics cannot be reliably used for predicting crime right now, national crime data is an excellent tool for helping to improve relations with the community. Making crime data public increases transparency. While it can expose criminal justice professionals to scrutiny, it also allows for dialogue between law enforcement and the public they serve. As with any other government agency, the public deserves to be informed about how well the police are protecting the community. Sharing crime statistics with the public increases trust in the police and creates good working relationships.
Making sure enough money is allocated to the right locations and programmes can make a big difference in keeping communities safe. Crime statistics are important for creating accurate budgets. They can show where more resources are needed as well as where fewer resources are needed as a community grows safer. Without statistics, it would be impossible to create appropriate law enforcement budgets.
Beyond just budgets, crime statistics are important in broader law enforcement resource allocation. For example, the data can be used to help determine which programmes or communities will require more resource allocation. Crime statistics can also be used to determine where or when police officers will patrol based on areas or times that see higher crime. While not going as far as predicting where crime will occur, the statistics do make it easier for criminal justice professionals to deploy their limited financial and personnel resources.
Law enforcement initiatives are created to decrease crime. Crime statistics are important in determining whether these initiatives are working or if changes are needed. The data can show if criminality is going up or down in the areas targeted. This can help criminal justice professionals understand whether their initiatives are successful.
However, the predictive value of crime statistics is debatable and still needs refinement. There have been several pilot projects using crime statistics to predict future crime, but the results have been inconclusive. The goal is that, with more work, crime statistics will become a tool to help decrease future crimes.
Statistics do not lie, but they may portray a distorted picture. Crime statistics are just one important criminal justice tool. The value of crime statistics is not fully known, but there is no doubt that the data is important. Whether it is used to help efficiently deploy resources or assess the programmes that are underway, it is critical.
Dr. Mark Said is a lawyer.