A new poll released on Saturday by Vince Marmara suggests that if a general election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party would secure victory by roughly 26,000 votes. According to the survey, published on Facebook, Labour stands at 52.3% support, while the Nationalist Party trails at 43.5%.

These figures are practically unchanged from Marmara's previous poll last month, which placed Labour ahead by about 25,000 votes. In contrast, a Malta Today survey published last week indicated a much smaller winning margin for Labour-around 7,600 votes-though it was consistent with another Malta Today poll carried out earlier.

Most notably, both polling sources indicate that Labour did not gain any additional backing following what it labelled its "best budget in history," which was announced between the two survey periods.

The latest findings show that 12.7% of respondents remain undecided, while 1.7% would vote for ADPD and another 2% would support a different party. Marmara highlighted that undecided voters could significantly impact the final outcome.

The fieldwork was carried out by Sagalytics between November 13 and 20 through phone interviews. The sample consisted of 1,200 individuals aged 16 and above, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.8%. Marmara applied the Multiple Imputation Technique in his data analysis.

Trust in party leaders
The survey also explored leadership trust. It found that 43.6% of respondents place the most trust in Labour leader Robert Abela, while 34.9% favour PN leader Alex Borg. Another 8.4% are unsure whom to trust, 5.1% trust neither leader, and 7.9% trust someone else. The trust gap of 8.7 percentage points is nearly identical to last month's gap of 8 points.

Among those who voted Labour in 2022, 84.5% continue to trust Abela, compared with 2.7% who now prefer Borg. On the Nationalist side, 88.4% of 2022 PN voters trust Borg, while 1.7% would choose Abela.

Would voters stay loyal to their 2022 choice?
The poll also asked 2022 PN voters if they would vote the same way again. A total of 89.7% said they would stick with the party, 1% would opt for ADPD or another party, 7.6% are undecided, and 1.7% said they would not vote.

For Labour voters from 2022, 83.8% would support the PL again, 1.7% would switch to the PN, and 1% would choose ADPD or another party. A further 7.4% are undecided, while 6.1% said they would not cast a vote.

A Times of Malta survey carried out before the budget also showed Labour in the lead, projecting a win by around 15,000 votes.

A Maltatoday survey published last week showed Labout would win by 7,600 votes.