Overpopulation in Malta has led to significant strain on infrastructure, increased traffic congestion, and challenges in waste and sewage management.
The rapid population growth has also raised concerns about sustainability and the overall quality of life on the island. Between 2013 and 2023, Malta's resident population increased from 425,000 to 552,000 - a 29.9% rise in just a decade. The growth was largely fuelled by net migration, of these, more than three-quarters (76.6%) were non-EU nationals, highlighting the continued role of third-country migration in shaping Malta's demographic landscape. The rapid rise in natives and almost four million visitors has led to frequent traffic congestion in most roads.
One would ask if this situation is mirroring the Malthus theory on unbridled population growth. Sociologists remind us of the Malthusian theory based on his observation of conditions in England in the early 1800s. More specifically, he stated that the human population increases geometrically, while food production increases arithmetically. However, he thought that families during a good harvest would then abuse their newfound abundance, particularly by producing larger families.
At some point, their numbers would exceed their ability to provide the necessities of life. Malthus derived this conclusion from the Law of Diminishing Returns. Overpopulation in Malta is partly due to registering more immigrants from third nation countries, which left unchecked can exacerbate social inequalities. The pressure on essential resources such as water, land, and energy grows alongside population increases, leading to power cuts in summer, increased competition and tensions within societies. Malthus' ideas laid the foundation for various fields, including demography, economics, and environmental studies.
They prompted ongoing discussions on sustainable development, social welfare, and the ethical implications of population control measures. Energy shortages highlight another dimension not considered by Malthus as rapid industrialization and technological progress have made modern civilization highly dependent on consistent and abundant energy supplies.
Given that Malthus could only envision a world supplying its food needs with human and animal labour on finite acreage of arable land, he can be forgiven for not anticipating the ensuing developments of higher energy availability and advanced technology. Modern theorists disagree, saying Malthus theories based on 18th century Britain do not prevail now.
It is true that Europe developed new streams of production and enhanced effort to reduce poverty. This may be true, however there are many economic and cultural problems in other parts of the globe where people are seeking mobility to escape poverty and seek better jobs. Malta, by comparison has a strong economy as our growth rates outpace most of the eurozone area.
Credit agencies rate us with flying colours. Next year, our economy is expected to grow further, with a real growth rate of almost shy of 4%. The government's labour migration policies have also been revisited. The aim is to align migration with the actual needs of the labour market. Then, most prevalent is the trajectory of temping agents in their quest to earn commissions on another stream of migrants applying for local jobs. Such third country nationals hail from diverse origins ranging from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Thailand and Serbia among others.
The social media aboard is loaded with sites attracting workers to Malta. They include videos titled "Malta work visa success stories". One such video posted last year was so popular that it garnered 175,000 views, while other videos regularly have more than 10,000 hits.
"I didn't know anything about Malta before seeing the video, said Anilkumar Ghanta. In this promotional video, it stated how applicants can expect many vacancies in Malta, with high salaries they can earn, but Ghanta thinks this is all hype, hubris and pure lies. In a particular case, one man said he paid the equivalent of €6,820 to work in Malta. The 45-year-old is among several who feel cheated by "Abroad Study Plan", an Indian employment agency that sends people to Malta and other European countries promising decent jobs. Other problems relate to difficulties when applying for residence permits. In a quoted case, three Turkish men seconded on a government construction project, yet they faced deportation after their employer failed to secure their residence permits. Statistics show an exponential growth of foreign human resources at a time when natives do not want to be seen doing lower paid jobs such as cleaning, dish washing, driving cabs, carers in hospitals, madly delivering foods on scooters, and tougher jobs on building sites.
One is tempted to ask; how does such extra manpower undercut production cost thus help to jettison exports. Regulations have recently been drafted in parliament to regulate temping agencies and tighten on abuses. Ideally, this law can slowly weed out rogue agencies who by recruiting TNC's to various clients, thereby charging €12 per hour as commission but in reality only paying TCN's €5.60 per hour (sometimes without standard conditions such as annual bonuses, health insurance and public holidays).
One expects to read about public debates by MCSED club members when offering their solutions to government on how to interpret our demographics. Ideally, MCSED can issue a public tender to non-partisan experts on the country's ideal carrying capacity. More foes follow this intrepid overflowing of inhabitants.
The Commission launched an excessive deficit procedure against Malta and six other countries in 2024 after the country's deficit reached 4.9% of GDP in 2023. On 21 January 2025, the Council adopted a recommendation setting out a maximum net expenditure growth path with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Malta by 2027. On a cumulative basis, net expenditure growth is expected to exceed the maximum growth rate of 20.4% recommended by the Council with a cumulative deviation of 1.5% of GDP in 2026. As a result, Malta is at risk of material non-compliance with the maximum net expenditure in the Council Recommendation in 2025 and 2026.
The finance minister has calmed nerves promising to reduce expenditure to a 3% deficit ceiling next year. If we stop and think, one questions the panegyrics of Malthus and his theory of over population thus rendering weak progression in any economy. Experts advise us to forget Malthus theory as it is not applicable in 21st century, even though as a country our native population is dwindling possibly due to a low fertility rate of under 1.06, when studies point that a healthy replacement rate is a minimum of 2.1.
So, expect less workers in the labour queue but a higher imported cohort to make up the shortage. Will there be enough native workers placing their shoulder to the wheel by 2050, to generate a higher GDP; so as to sustain, accommodate and feed such a population explosion?
Only time will tell.
George M Mangion is Senior Partner PKF Malta