There's been a flurry of polls in the last few weeks, reaching widely varying results. Vincent Marmara concluded that Labour would win by 26,000 votes if an election were held tomorrow. The Times of Malta () predicted that Labour would win by 15,000 votes. Maltatoday cut that lead to just 7,600 votes and pointed out that a PN victory was within the confidence interval. But there's one thing on which all three polls are consistent - Robert Abela is the biggest loser. His trust rating has plunged from a high of 62.5% in January 2020 to a mere 43.6% in Marmara's friendly assessment.
For years Robert Abela's personal approval rating exceeded the party's support. Not anymore. Instead of buoying up his party, Abela is now dragging it down. Labour's support is now at 52.3% according to Marmara but Abela's poll numbers have crashed from that all time high of 62.5% to a mere 43.6%. Robert Abela is no longer the talisman he once was. He's now more of a millstone round the party's neck, plodding from one U-turn to the next, from one error of judgement to the next catastrophe. And things will only get worse.
Hundreds of thousands of taxpayer euro were spent hyping up Abela's latest budget. The carefully choreographed hysteria over the much anticipated best budget in history flopped miserably. By raising the public's expectations to such heights, the real thing was always bound to disappoint. The swing Labour expected and worked for by whetting the voters' appetite for weeks on end never materialised. The public realised that the powerful wizard was just a fraud. The needle never budged - even on Marmara's poll. It was as if the best budget in history had never happened. Or maybe that expensive publicity around the budget prevented a far worse outcome for Robert Abela and his party.
Abela knows he's in trouble. He can see his popularity fizzling out by the minute. He's now giving interviews to try and recover lost ground, something he never contemplated for months and years. He's frantically contradicting himself. In the space of a few days Abela went from defending Neville Gafa's destruction of floral tributes placed by the diplomatic corps at the Caruana Galizia memorial as Gafa's right to freedom of expression to denouncing Gafa's attacks on ambassadors as unacceptable.
After trying to bulldoze through planning legislation described as a developers' wishlist, Abela has had to change tack and move more slowly and cautiously after the fierce backlash he faced. He completely misread the public sentiment. He thought nobody would notice and the majority wouldn't bother. He soon learnt how wrong he was.
Even Labour's 2022 voters are discovering that their golden boy has lost his appeal and charm. Almost 20% of all those who voted Labour in the last election don't want Abela to be Prime Minister. That's a staggering 32,216 Labour voters who have given up on Abela. What must be a bitter pill for him to swallow is that 16,433 of those 2022 Labour voters now want Alex Borg to be Prime Minister. Those 16,433 Labour voters believe Borg would make a better PM than Robert Abela. In three out of six regions Alex Borg is ahead of Robert Abela. In the key swing district of Gozo, Alex Borg enjoys the support of 49.8% of voters. Robert Abela is at a miserable 35%.
But there's more worrying news for Labour. The Opposition is leading amongst the youngest voters - 16-35 years olds for the first time in years. Labour has finally lost its crown as the party of the young. Labour is now the party of the past not the future.
The Opposition is ahead in four out of six regions. Labour's slim advantage hangs on its notoriously loyal voter base in the South Eastern and South Harbour regions. 21.1% of all those who voted Labour in 2022 won't vote Labour again. 12,691 of those voters will now vote PN. Amongst those who didn't vote in 2022, PN has a 10 point advantage over Labour. That's an additional 9,082 voters who decided to stay away at the last election but now intend to vote for the Opposition party. No wonder Robert Abela is in panic mode. That's why he's promising everything and anything to everybody.
Don't worry if my best budget in history was somewhat underwhelming, he reassured the public. I'm already working on my next one, he declared. There's plenty more to do before he calls an election, he told Herman Grech. "We have the best economy in the EU", he bragged, "it's phenomenal". And stop accusing Abela of being obsessed with money. He's given up revenue of hundreds of millions of euro between White Rocks and Manoel Island to improve our quality of life. He even pulled a third site out of his hat - Fort Campbell in Selmun () - which will be given to the public for their enjoyment. But then swiftly defaulted to his defence of his developer friends. "I do not believe that the people, in their majority, are against the construction sector," he said. Why does this man keep putting his foot in it?
Abela's ego has taken a bit of a dent recently. Those surveys all agree that he's the biggest loser. His support is fading fast. No wonder he's refused to comment on those surveys. "I have no intention of commenting on it (the Maltatoday survey) today either, just as I never comment on surveys". That's another lie of course.
On Xarabank he commented publicly about the surveys - "the surveys I have seen show encouraging results but there is still a lot of work to do". On TVM's Xtra in November 2024 Abela commented "the surveys indicate that the public knows we can address these realities". Maybe what Abela really meant is that he never comments on unfavourable surveys but is absolutely fine commenting on boosting his image.
The best measure of the astute politician is knowing when it's time to go, to quit while you're ahead. Now is Abela's time. He knows his lead won't last. He can feel his adversary nipping at his heels. He's trailing his own party in the popularity stakes. And that can't be good. Abela is now a liability not an asset.