The Labour Party (PL) retains a narrow three-point lead over the Nationalist Party (PN) in the first MaltaToday survey of 2026, underlining a political landscape marked more by voter abstention than by large-scale switching between the two main parties. According to the survey, the PL stands at 48.9% against the PN's 45.7%, translating into a projected lead of 9,262 votes on an estimated turnout of 81.1%.
MaltaToday notes that the gap between the parties has remained "relatively the same since October", the first survey conducted after Alex Borg took over as PN leader. Compared to the previous poll in November 2025, the PL gained a marginal 0.2 points, while the PN lost 0.4 points. These movements fall well within the survey's margin of error of ±3.5 points and are therefore statistically insignificant.
The survey was conducted among 813 respondents contacted during the first two weeks of January, at a time when speculation about an early election was rife. Prime Minister Robert Abela has since reiterated his intention to present another budget in October before heading to the polls in 2027, while keeping the option of an earlier election open in the event of "geopolitical disruptions".
While the PL's current lead mirrors the relatively tight margin seen in the 2024 MEP elections, it is a stark contrast to the party's 40,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election. MaltaToday attributes this narrowing largely to a growing tendency among former Labour voters to abstain rather than defect to another party. The proportion of 2022 PL voters who now say they will not vote has risen steadily, from 6.7% in June 2025 to 13.9% in the latest survey.
"This suggests that Labour still struggles in its bid to recover disgruntled former voters and thus reassemble its super majority," MaltaToday reports. The situation contrasts sharply with that of the PN, where abstention among its 2022 voters has fallen from 10.5% in June 2025 to just 3.9% now, a trend attributed to renewed enthusiasm following Borg's leadership.
Overall, the PN is retaining a larger share of its 2022 electorate, with 86.7% of its voters confirming continued support, compared to 75.6% among PL voters. Nevertheless, MaltaToday cautions that the PN's support appears to have stabilised around the 46% mark since October, raising questions about whether the party has already reached its peak or still has room to grow.
The survey also confirms ongoing fragmentation among third parties, with ADPD and Momentum polling equally at 2.3% each. While the PN has made modest inroads among PL voters - 8.6% of Labour's 2022 voters now intend to vote PN - it also loses more support to smaller parties than Labour does. The PL loses just 2% of its 2022 voters to third parties, compared to 3.5% for the PN.
Regionally, the PL leads in four of Malta's six regions, posting particularly strong margins in the South Harbour (11.8 points) and South Eastern (22.1 points) regions. It also holds five-point leads in the Northern and Western regions, traditionally more favourable to the PN, partly due to higher third-party voting there. The PN, however, enjoys a substantial 11-point lead in the North Harbour region and a marginal 0.7-point advantage in Gozo.
On leadership trust, MaltaToday reports that Abela is trusted with running the country by 41.3% of voters, compared to 35.9% for Borg. Since November, Abela has lost 3.9 points, while Borg has gained 0.6 points, with much of Abela's decline reflected in a growing share of voters who trust neither leader.
Both leaders continue to command strong loyalty within their respective parties, but the survey highlights a key dynamic: while voters drifting from the PL to the PN are more likely to trust Borg, former PN voters shifting to Labour do not necessarily place their trust in Abela. According to MaltaToday, this underscores that Labour's main challenge is not defections to the opposition, but re-engaging its own disillusioned base.