It is time to examine the impact of immigration on recent and future Maltese demographic trends. A substantial increase in the Maltese population in the last two decades was due to the direct contribution of net immigration.
The increase in the number of foreign workers reflects Malta's economic strength and competitiveness in an increasingly challenging international economic environment. Foreign workers make up around one-third of the workforce and now play a critical role across almost every sector. Foreign workers have also brought much-needed expertise that was lacking in our labour market. They are therefore essential not only for economic growth but also for the delivery of essential services.
In fact, Malta's immigration rate was 75% higher than any other EU state in 2023.
Yet this very positive economic picture of Malta has its downside in the over-population issues that it has brought about. In an alternative variant where net immigration was zero, the population would be much lower than the high and unacceptable number it has now reached.
Up to a few years ago, Malta's immigration policy was based on the concept of never-ending growth, which was a developer/finance-centric model rather than one which is focused on citizen well-being and environmental health.
There is a direct link between immigration and sustainability.
Our population growth strategy took place in a policy vacuum where there was no concern for the quality of jobs, affordability of housing, debt or levels of equality. Instead of focusing on the well-being of the Maltese and the health of the land, the policy of mass immigration in Malta was meant to make a market for developers, speculators, banks and cheap labour employers.
The latest Malta Labour Migration Policy aims to ensure that economic migration addresses future labour market needs and enhances workforce retention.
Population projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of political, economic, social and cultural changes which may affect demographic patterns and trends, but are mechanical calculations that show the outcomes of sets of assumptions made for the three components of demographic change (fertility, mortality and immigration). They are typically reliable only for the short to medium term.
Uncertainty increases the further the projections are carried forward in time, as any upward or downward changes in fertility, mortality and immigration assumptions, compounded over time, can lead to significant variations in the projected population size and structure.
The first thing to know is that immigration is not a problem to be solved; in fact, it is a powerful driver of sustainable development for migrants and their communities. It brings significant benefits in the form of skills, strengthening the labour force, investment and cultural diversity, among others.
The challenge of managing immigration has grown dramatically over the past few decades. However, immigration, especially when it is massive, involves challenges that, if properly managed, can turn these migratory movements into a source of growth.
To start with, most migratory movements are regular: they take place legally through regulated channels and legal means. By contrast, irregular immigration occurs when a person enters, stays or works in a country without the necessary authorisation or documents required under immigration regulations.
Strange as it may sound, immigration can solve the demographic dilemma, but not without the right policies.
The immigration debate often focuses on culture, identity and the economy. Immigration does not reduce the capital intensity of the economy, but rather it allows firms to expand and investments to adjust, and it also promotes innovation and growth, especially when highly skilled immigrants are admitted.
Yet the discussion over immigration often pays insufficient attention to the Achilles' heel of Malta: its demographics. Fertility in our country is at its lowest ebb ever and currently falls well below replacement, that is, the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
Consequently, the difference in births and deaths would produce a population decline and a substantial increase in average ages in our small country, both of which could disrupt the labour market, threaten the fiscal sustainability of our pension system, and slow down economic growth, unless total net immigration offsets such a decline.
The bottom line is that only net immigration can ensure population stability or growth in an ageing advanced economy like ours, and this will happen only if we promote forward-looking immigration policies that allow larger numbers of immigrants and consider their long-run impact, rather than focusing only on the short-term calculations of their mostly political costs.
While immigrants will eventually age, a significant inflow of young working-age people during the years of greatest native decline will allow a gradual and more manageable transition.
However, the Malta Migration Policy has, if anything, tightened our country's immigration policies and shown growing scepticism toward immigrants. Interestingly, one reason for this opposition to immigration may be found in demographics itself.
Evidently, our ageing society was becoming more averse to open immigration policies, and older people had systematically more negative attitudes toward immigrants than younger people.
Clearly, though, we need to continue stemming the negative effects of immigration in Malta and adopt well-researched and coherent policies. We need to focus more on the well-being of our citizens and the health of our environment, rather than expanding the commercial economy for the benefit of a very few at the expense of most.
Failing this, population growth will remain simply incompatible with the need to create either a sustainable or an egalitarian society.
Dr Mark Said is a lawyer