It was on 28 February that the president of the United States and the prime minister of Israel combined efforts in a strike that killed Iran's 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The decapitation of the Iranian regime reflects the devastating operational success of Operation Epic Fury. After such an attack, Iran continues to fire missiles, while the US and allies worry about running out of interceptors before Iran runs out of projectiles.
A major oil shock or shipping crisis could push global powers to force negotiations. What are the immediate consequences of this conflict? As of 7 March, the ongoing war between Iran and a US-Israel coalition, which escalated with coordinated strikes on Iran has severely disrupted travel across the Middle East and blocked several oil tankers in the Gulf of Hormuz.
The saga involves missile and drone attacks, including Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf states like Israel, UAE, Qatar, Cyprus, Turkey, and others, leading to widespread airspace closures, flight cancellations, and a sharp decline in tourism. US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" as the American and Israeli military continued to launch strikes.
Residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut have been issued with a new evacuation order by the Israeli military. In a recent update, the Israel Defence Force's Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, warns citizens in the south of the Lebanese capital: "Save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately." He says the activity by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Dahieh is forcing the Israel Defence Forces to act against it forcefully. The US-Iran relations have been volatile for decades, shaped by events like the 1953 coup, the 1979 revolution, and the Iran-Contra era.
Tensions have escalated repeatedly since 1979, with cycles of sanctions, proxy conflicts, and nuclear disputes. This recent episode is unusual because it emerges amid direct strikes, proxy escalations, and widespread regional instability - conditions that historically undermined diplomacy rather than enabled it. Earlier, talks often focused on broad political normalisation or crisis de‑escalation.
Let us consider Turkey's involvement. It is examining the possibility of deploying F-16 Fighting Falcon jets to the island of Cyprus as part of security planning linked to the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Citing sources from the Turkish defence ministry, the reports say that, in light of recent developments in the region, plans are gradually being drawn up to strengthen the territory's security, with the possible deployment of F-16 aircraft among the options under consideration.
The same sources say the planning is being assessed within the broader context of regional developments and what Ankara describes as evolving security needs. Yet hope springs eternal that backroom discussions in Oman are working for a solution. Oman reports that Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of uranium which is a technical concession, but not a full political framework.
It resembles the confidence‑building measures used in early 2013 but is narrower and more fragile. Observers lament that trust during such talks is lower than at any point since the 1980s "shadow war" period. Facilitator rather than as a sole mediator, Iran trusts Oman, Switzerland, Qatar. Naturally, practical moves can incorporate some confidence‑building measures.
These may involve arranging prisoner exchanges, humanitarian or sanctions‑relief carve‑outs, cease‑fires for proxies, or fishing out minor disputes that build trust before tackling major issues. Such efforts may include a multilateral framework. This means working with EU partners, the UN, and regional actors to create a package that spreads risk and increases legitimacy. Ideally, with a dose of quiet diplomacy, such as intelligence and gentle pressure to bring parties to the table, then stepping back as a neutral chair or guarantor if acceptable.
The recent Gulf instability follows an intensive bombing campaign by the US and Israel against longtime foe Iran, with the US claiming to have carried out attacks on more than 2,000 targets inside the country - more than double the strikes seen against Iraq as part of the US' "shock and awe" campaign of 2003. Now, let us discuss the consequences of such conflict particularly on the travel industry. "Developments in the Middle East and the associated geopolitical consequences for the global economy increase the medium- and long-term forecast uncertainty," said Lufthansa, which is Europe's biggest airline group by sales.
Talking to reporters later, Lufthansa was seeing "an enormous increase" in demand for long-haul flights to Asia and Africa because of major disruption at hubs like Dubai and Doha. Since the start of hostilities, thousands of tourists and residents - including Americans, Britons and other Europeans - have been unable to leave, with reports indicating that more than 100,000 people were affected in the first few days alone. If the conflict resolves within weeks (as some US statements suggest), tourism could rebound partially by mid-2026, but prolonged fighting might extend losses into 2027.
Lufthansa is cutting 4,000 jobs, mainly administrative roles in Germany. While the situation is fluid, with some repatriation flights resuming, the effects are multifaceted, impacting safety, logistics, and the regional economy. "The turmoil in the Middle East proves once again how exposed air traffic is and how vulnerable it remains, even though the industry is now more resilient to crises than it used to be," quoting Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr. Another risk that Lufthansa flagged was "volatility" on oil markets as the conflict sends prices, including those of jet fuel, sharply higher.
This adds to broader disruptions in the $11.7 trillion global travel industry. Low-cost airlines like Ryanair report a "big collapse" in Middle East bookings, with demand shifting to safer spots like Portugal, Italy, Malta and Greece ahead of Easter. Safer destinations by Ryanair would include Bangkok, Singapore and India. At least 20,000 to 30,000 flights to/from, and within the Middle East have been cancelled since the conflict began, with major hubs like Dubai International Airport temporarily closed or damaged by drone debris. Going down memory lane, such widespread closures of airspace have brought back memories of the travel shutdowns during the pandemic.
In conclusion of this sad episode, Iran will negotiate if it believes talks can deliver tangible improvements to its core interests such as regime survival and prestige, meaningful economic relief, credible security guarantees, and respect for its sovereignty.
George M. Mangion is a senior partner at PKF Malta