As we prepare to go to the polls, it is worth remembering that voting is the expression of our commitment to ourselves, one another, to this country and to the world. Voting in Malta used to be a civic sacrament, voting turnouts being typically in the higher 90s many years ago, though they have recently been down-trending. As is the rule in any democracy, the majority of voters will choose the government for the next five years, but it will be the majority of those who participate who will do so. Those who may decide to turn their back and burn their behinds will just have to sit on their blisters, to paraphrase Abraham Lincoln.
Democracy is doomed to fail unless those who make their choice are prepared to choose wisely. Educated voters are the real safeguard of democracy. I am not just talking about education in the narrow sense of the word - the one usually measured by how many 'O' levels or diplomas one gets, but about the broader definition that includes the cognitive abilities and critical thinking that one needs to understand complex issues.
It is already a problem that 40.8 percent of our population has a low level of schooling education, compared to 23.3 percent in the EU. A 2022 survey indicated an average IQ of 91.27 for the Maltese population, placing it 51st in the world. Approximately 22 percent of Maltese students do not have basic skills in reading, maths, and science. Those who report they have skills in gathering information from electronic or physical sources is only around 24.6 percent. Such statistics are rather disheartening and might lead one to conclude that "the ignorance of such voters in a democracy impairs the security of all," as John F. Kennedy once claimed.
But I would be wrong to put the whole blame for an imperfect process on an uneducated electorate. Responsibility for the legitimacy of the process also rests with the political parties and class. This is because it is simply not true that an election is merely to seek the consent of the governed. It is also about asking the powers-that-be whether they are the powers-that-ought-to-be. It is about asking whether the lot we are going to vote in are already thinking of the next election, or whether they are thinking of the next generation.
At the end of the day, the choices individuals make at the ballot box are influenced by a myriad of factors that impact their decision-making. These include social class, age, the media, short-term factors including the image of the party leader, single-issue voting, and long-term factors including ethnicity and gender.
It is safe to say that social class remains the most important factor affecting voting behaviour in Malta. In successive elections, there has been a sustained and consistent pattern of class-based voting. According to various opinion polls, voters in social classes D/E are more likely to vote Labour, voters in social classes A/B more likely to vote for the PN, while the C1 and C2 classes are usually up for grabs.
I have no doubt that both the PL and PN would dispute this. As in most other western democracies, they would all like to occupy the centre and muddy the waters. But the historic links between social class and voting behaviour are hard to ignore, even if both parties now favour low taxes and improved welfare support. The PL has ditched the types of policies ̶ like higher taxes and income redistribution ̶ that antagonise wealthier people, while the PN is embracing energy subsidies that appeal particularly to less well-off voters.
Then there is the link between age and voting behaviour. As people age, they tend to be at the top of their earnings, so they are more likely to favour policies such as lower taxation on higher earners. If they are lower-income people relying on pensions, they are likely to favour policies such as better pensions and subsidies on services. This might explain why the PL has been actively targeting these groups. In 2022, according to a Misco survey, the 65 and over category had its majority (40.5%) swaying toward the Labour Party in many of the voting-related questions. On the other hand, according to a Malta Today opinion poll in March 2026, the PN had a seven-percentage-point lead among voters aged 16-35.
Possibly the biggest age impact on elections is becoming that of turnout. According to the same Malta Today poll, 25.2 percent of the respondents who said they do not intend to vote were below 35 years of age.
Media influence is another factor in election results. The influence of the mainstream printed media has decreased significantly and is now mainly restricted to less committed voters. Television plays a bigger role, though polarisation of the outlets tends to reinforce already committed voters. Nowadays, the biggest role is played by online and social media. Websites, blogs, podcasts, and social networking websites are a very effective way of reaching voters.
The use of social media allows political parties to tailor their promotion to different demographics in the hope of increasing their share of the vote. Labour seems to have the upper edge here, at least so far. However, the real influence of the social media, who it is affecting most, and whether they are changing the dynamics or simply reinforcing existing ones, remain to be seen.
In every election, there may be short-term factors that affect 'floating' voters. This time, it could be the Iran war and its consequences. It is well-known that, in times of war and international turmoil, voters tend to reward stability and support the Establishment. The full consequences of the Iran war are yet to be seen, but the international events could boost the PL's fortunes. Obviously, one cannot exclude that some other short-term factor might favour the PN.
Some voters can be influenced by a single issue. If some people's main concern is the environment and they judge the governing party's record spotty, they may choose to vote for ADPD or Momentum. A rise in inflation could well become one. The continued subsidisation of energy prices, which is currently costing €150m, and the government's insistence that it has a 'war chest' of €250m to fight any increased inflation, will probably moderate any concerns.
Other single issues could be traffic and overpopulation. In the Malta Today survey, these were the third and fifth factors most likely to influence voters but only accounted for 9 and 8 percent of voter intention, respectively. If one includes overdevelopment and foreign workers, each with 2.9 percent, then one can see that current single issues are unlikely to have a significant impact individually though they could well play a moderate role collectively. The government may suffer here.
The top two concerns were the cost of living and spending power, with 10.1 and 9.3 percent, respectively. Throw in housing and one could call them the 'affordability' issue. We all know how important this can be. The Democrats in the USA are playing this card in a big way in preparing for the mid-term elections in seven months' time.
The problem with affordability is that is tends to be very subjective. Without a universally agreed concept, affordability is less a raw data point ̶ as is inflation ̶ and more a subjective, personal experience of what I would call "breathing room" in a household budget. However much economists may define it technically, individuals often perceive affordability through the lens of having a desired quality of life, paying for essentials, and still saving money.
The country could be growing healthily but people might still say that life is not affordable. Affordability is an issue that is dominating public sentiment across the whole EU, as recently pointed out by Dr Maria Elena Despot, head of the European Commission Representation in Malta. Affordability is not just solved by increasing household incomes; it is made up of different market forces.
During the last decade, the savings rate of households has more than quintupled to 11.4 percent of nominal disposable income, according to an article in the Central Bank of Malta's Outlook (2005). The recent tax cuts will definitely boost the savings rate - as well as consumption ̶ in the short term but not significantly so in the medium to long term. For the moment, it can be considered a positive for the government.
Finally, there is little overall difference between the way men and women vote. According to the Malta Today survey, the PN would win the female vote, with 31.2% of female voters preferring the PN over 29.6% that would vote for the PL. I don't know whether this has anything to do with how telegenic Robert Abela and Alex Borg appear to women. Both have competed in International Federation of Fitness and Bodybuilding (IFBB) competitions, and Borg had challenged Abela to a friendly workout to see who can lift heavier weights. Whether this will remain a banter issue or lead to a real boxing ring where blood would be spilled remains to be seen.
The Malta Today survey didn't tell us anything about another important concern: Favours Needed. PL insiders are very much aware of a considerable number of voters, running into thousands, who are threatening not to vote if the various favours they are demanding are not dispensed. Some of the favours being requested are petty, others ̶ like public jobs ̶ are weightier. Most of the people concerned are PL supporters who could make the difference between a mere victory and a larger one.
Predicting elections and deciphering voter intentions are famously fiendish. The American essayist Henry David Thoreau may have hit the nail on the head: "All voting is a sort of gaming, like checkers or backgammon, with a slight moral tinge to it, a playing with right and wrong."
Frans Camilleri is an economist. He studied at Oxford and University of East Anglia, is a former corporate head at Air Malta, and has served on various public and private boards.