One of the recurring questions in the run-up to a general election concerns not the Labour Party or Nationalist Party, but the notion of whether another political party can ever make it into Parliament within the current political climate.

Historically speaking, it's something that hasn't happened for 60 years.  The last time Malta had more than two political parties elected into Parliament was in 1966 - the first general election after Malta achieved independence.

In this election, a total of five political parties - the PN, the PL, the Labour breakaway Christian Workers' Party, the Nationalist breakaway Partito Democratico Nazionale, and Strickland's Progressive Constitutional Party - were elected to represent Parliament.

By the next election in 1971, the status quo that has since dominated Maltese politics was established.  The only half exception came in 2017 when Marlene and Godfrey Farrugia from the Democratic Party (PD) were elected to Parliament - but they did so while contesting under the PN's ballot list, so were not elected under their own steam.

We come into this election with two notions in mind.  The first is that unlike in 2022, we come into this election with at least two well-organised small political parties:  ADPD and Momentum.  ADPD remains a household name having been around for over 30 years, while Momentum is the bi-product of a movement which backed Arnold Cassola as an independent candidate in the 2024 European Parliament elections.

The second notion is that in those European Parliament elections, there was a significant swing in support for politicians who are alternatives to the bipartisan status quo. Cassola garnered 12,706 votes by himself, while other independent candidates and parties scooped up another 20,000 or so votes between themselves.

Now, we must keep in mind that there is a tendency for people to be more experimental with their vote during MEP Elections when compared to General Elections.  However, polling is still showing a potentially record low turnout and a higher than usual share of votes for small parties.

MaltaToday's most recent poll indicates 6.1% of the electorate supporting third parties. Times of Malta's poll puts this at 4.3%, and Vince Marmara puts it at an almost identical 4.2%.  This is a share of between 12,000 to 18,000 votes, depending which poll you'd like to hedge your bets on. For context, ADPD garnered 4,747 votes during the 2022 election.

Would this be enough for a third party to break the barrier of representation in Parliament?  Cassola and ADPD leader Sandra Gauci are likely the ones who stand any sort of chance of doing so. 

The fact remains though that the odds - and the system - are stacked against them.  Neither ADPD nor Momentum are given equal footing in debates by organisers, not least by the Broadcasting Authority - which, lest we forget, has a board made up of representatives selected by the PL and PN. 

Only at the debate at the University of Malta did we get to see all party leaders cross swords on the same stage. 

Making it all the more difficult for these small parties is that things like the gender corrective mechanism do not take third parties into consideration.  In the case of this mechanism, for example, if it were set up in such a manner that it would take a smaller party into consideration, Sandra Gauci had enough first count votes in order to be elected from her district via the mechanism.

As things stand, though, the mechanism does not consider them - and if a candidate from a third party was to be elected, then the mechanism would not function altogether.

But the biggest battle that these small parties must fight is against voter attitudes.  There is a growing number of people, evidently, who believe that the time is right for a third party to make it into the mainstream. There is an even higher number of people who are disillusioned with Maltese PL/PN political dominance.  

The polls and expected low turnout are evidence of this.

But what counts is on whether, today week, these parties can convince enough people to go out and vote, and go out and vote for them.  It has the makings of an interesting storyline come Election Day.