Very often, human migration is interpreted by conflicting ideological narratives that give little space to context. Yet, there are researchers and policymakers who try to understand this complex issue by means of evidence backed by scholarly methods.
A case in point is the newly published Expert Analysis, 'Environmental change, conflict, and human migration in the Mediterranean Basin' by the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change (MedECC).
MedECC is an independent international network of scientists founded in 2015, bringing together international expertise on the Mediterranean region. This Expert Analysis draws on more than 1,000 scientific publications to examine the relationships between environmental change, conflict and migration. For transparency, I am participating as a Lead Author in MedECC's forthcoming Second Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR2), but was not involved in this Expert Analysis.
One of the report's important messages is that "the narrative of migration and displacement induced by environmental change as a linear cause-effect relationship needs to be revisited. It is crucial to acknowledge region-specific push factors and diverse motivations for migration, which differ not only from one region to another but also amongst various groups of people and communities. The differences between internal and external migration are shaped by distinct socio-economic conditions and geopolitical forces. Furthermore, the decision to leave one's home, livelihood, history, and culture is also shaped by the dangers involved in the journey (or at least a perception of them), its legality, and the risks migrants are prepared to take."
To avoid any misunderstanding: environmental change certainly matters. The Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, drought, water scarcity and other pressures. All southern and eastern Mediterranean countries already experience water stress, while climatic changes are likely to transform the region into a global drought hotspot, with consequences for food security, ecosystems and human wellbeing. But environmental change interacts with society.
Indeed, the report shows how conflict, socio-economic conditions, different levels of vulnerability and governance frequently play a more important role than environmental change in driving migration, particularly across national borders. People do not experience heat, drought, food insecurity or other environmental pressures identically. Their ability to adapt is influenced by income, employment, gender, age, location, access to resources, political circumstances and institutions.
Structural inequalities are particularly important. The report highlights how they influence whether people move or remain where they are, the routes and conditions of migration, and people's capacity to adapt. Migration may sometimes represent adaptation, but not everyone has the resources or opportunities to move.
Thus, as the report puts it, "The links between environmental factors and migration are complex and characterised by non-linearities and high context-dependency. Environmental migration is strongly influenced by local socio-economic and political conditions, and other co-stressors."
Importantly, the report also identifies significant data and methodological gaps. The complexity of the relationship, together with insufficient data, makes it difficult to isolate environmental impacts on migration and to project future mobility. This is another reason why sweeping conclusions should be treated with caution, while further interdisciplinary research remains essential.
Thus, environmental and climate change can interact with existing vulnerabilities and tensions and may act as risk multipliers, but complex political and social conflicts should not simply be reduced to environmental causes.
Indeed, migration itself is diverse. Most migrants from the African and Middle Eastern regions considered in the report move internally, often from rural areas towards towns and cities. Yet between 2014 and 2024, more than 30,000 people were recorded dead or missing while crossing the Mediterranean Sea.
The report consequently calls for greater emphasis on development, cooperation, adaptation, resilient livelihoods, social equity and stakeholder involvement.
This has implications beyond migration. Authorities dealing with climate change, rising temperatures, extreme heat, water scarcity and other environmental challenges need environmental and climate expertise, but this is not enough. As the MedECC report shows us, environmental conditions interact with social and economic realities. Thus, environmental scientists, economists, sociologists and local practitioners, among others, have a very important role to play in research and policymaking in the field.
Quantitative indicators can tell us much about changing temperatures, rainfall, water availability and migration patterns. Qualitative research can complement this by helping us understand people's lived experiences: what such changes mean in everyday life, how people adapt, and why similar environmental pressures can have very different social consequences.
It is important to note that reports such as this are not simply discussing scenarios that might materialise decades from now. They are also assessing environmental and social changes taking place today and how societies and individuals are experiencing them. Environmental change is therefore also about societies and people's lived experiences today.
Michael Briguglio is Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology, Faculty of Arts, University of Malta
www.michaelbriguglio.com