After retaining his seat as United States President, George W. Bush will now focus on fulfilling an ambitious programme while trying to avoid the scandals and troubles that were part and parcel of the presidency of some of his two-term predecessors.

The 1972 break-in at the Watergate office building that President Richard Nixon described as a “third-rate burglary” eventually forced him to resign. President Ronald Reagan had the Iran-Contra arms sales scandal. President Bill Clinton was impeached and faced the possibility of being removed from office for trying to hide a relationship with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky.

Some political observers say it is unlikely that Bush will go through similar difficulties. Most believe that his biggest problems will be legislative.

Members of congress from both parties are already sceptic about his main target in the second term: reforming the social security pension plan by adding private investment accounts to the 70-year-old government safety net for retirees.

In Iraq, the situation is far from quiet ahead of the election this weekend, as insurgents fight Bush’s efforts to install a democratic government.

At home, a controversial battle with Democrats is in the pipeline should Bush have a vacancy to fill on the Supreme Court. Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist is 80 and suffering from thyroid cancer. Democrats have threatened to block any nominee they consider too extreme, and the timing of such a fight could stall Bush’s agenda.

Bush also has to work against what political psychologist Stanley Renshon said is the “dissipation of power and

influence” that comes from being viewed as a lame duck.

“As his term winds down, people will be looking towards the next occupant,” said Renshon, who teaches at the City University of New York and is the author of a recent book about the US President.

Former Reagan aide Fred Ryan said the attention Bush and his loyal staff pay to history and to the details of his presidency make him an unlikely victim of “these so-called

second-term woes.”

“I just think he’s very focused and he’s very disciplined about things,” Ryan said. “The fact that this is something that could happen, people on his team will be very guarded and extra vigilant to ensure something doesn’t happen.”

But Leon Panetta, who served Clinton first as budget director and later as chief of staff, said issues from the first term often catch up with a president in his second.

“The policies you put in place in the first term are yours,” he said. And in Bush’s case, Iraq quickly comes to mind.

Scandal cut short Nixon’s second term, after revelations that the White House was involved in a burglary at Democratic headquarters in the Watergate office complex in June 1972. Nixon eventually resigned in August 1974, the first American president to do so.

Reagan’s crisis in 1986-87 centred on his administration’s decision to sell weapons to Iran in exchange for US hostages in Lebanon, and to give some of the proceeds to the Nicaraguan Contras, despite a congressional ban on such aid. Several top White House aides resigned as a result.

During his second term, Clinton became the second president to be impeached by the House of Representatives. He was charged with perjury and obstructing justice in the investigation of his affair with intern Monica Lewinsky. He was acquitted in 1999 after a Senate trial.

Presidents Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower and Lyndon B. Johnson faced second-term troubles on the issues of sending US troops to Korea, the downing of a spy plane over the Soviet Union and increasing US involvement in the Vietnam War, respectively.

Renshon blames Nixon’s and Clinton’s problems on “psychology issues that were troublesome in the first term.” Reagan, meanwhile, “was a hands-off leader who was aging and I think some people took advantage of that,” added Renshon, who disagrees that second terms are more

troublesome.

“Scandals happen primarily because people are willing to cut corners and loosen boundaries and Bush is not that kind of guy,” he said. “If anything, he’s a stick-to-it guy. It’s not likely to happen.”