I have a coffee at one of my favourite Ferries-based coffee shops. I have a light salad lunch at one of Malta’s many seaside restaurants. I have an Oriental dinner at one of Malta’s very good Eastern eateries. Inevitably, on all these occasions of late, and in these last three months especially, somebody, usually a male, comes up to ask me who I think is going to win the next election. All these people tend to be over 50 years of age. They probably think it is consuming my thoughts too, who knows?

Whatever the reason, the next election result is preying heavily on some of the public’s minds, most typically the male Nationalist or Labour floating voter. They know change might be in the air, and they can’t quite believe it, whether they are red or blue incidentally. I guess they want to know whether I believe it.

However if the election is going to be as late as next March or May, I cannot see this level of interest sustaining itself. But it is fascinating how interested people are, particularly males, and particularly those who are over 50 years of age. And a lot of the politicking of recent weeks, a lot of the PR of the political parties in recent times too, has been directed at the older Maltese males, the ones who are still grabbed by politics, the ones who still want to have faith in our political classes.

One side shows projects, the other side shows alleged wrongdoing. Who you believe, or who you disbelieve less when this sort of dichotomy presents itself tends to depend mostly on your upbringing. But fewer and fewer are debating the issues the political parties keep throwing at us. More and more people seem to be switched off, with the exception of this very interested small group of males I talked about earlier, who get more passionate by the day.

I think all the major political parties, who are or seem to mainly be made up of over-50-year-old males, should perhaps bring some more and some very different people into their party machinery pretty pronto. Right now they are preaching to the converted but not to the floaters. They are talking to people like themselves. Nobody is reaching those who think independently and differently, although Alternattiva Demokratika may have made some inroads there. Time will tell.

The next election will in my view be decided by three main groups of people. The first are the ones we don’t – in my view – give enough importance to. Those who came from Labour families originally, but have voted PN since around 1987 or thereabouts, with many more coming on board the PN bandwagon when EU membership was the issue. Secondly, the disgruntled Nationalists, the ones who are saying they won’t vote, or will vote AD or even say they will vote Labour. And, of course, the young new voters who may tip the applecart too.

If you know Maltese people well you soon come to the conclusion that our recent political history is strange; that there really is, or should be, a natural Labour majority in these islands. Most people are, for lack of a better phrase, working class after all. Most people are not very well off. Most people should be natural Labour voters. Yet since the extremism of Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici days, people who would otherwise ordinarily have been Labour voters have not been prepared to take the leap and vote Labour. They did in 1996 of course but once again they were reminded of the old Labour intransigence via Mintoff’s antics, antics which ultimately succeeded in changing our political history in general, and particularly Labour’s.

I also think this election is not going to be as presidential as usual. I don’t think for many it will be a Gonzi versus Sant vote. Both parties may play it like that, but people have become more complex and less simplistic and voting patterns are going to reflect this. Those who are planning strategies should bear this in mind too, that just pitting one leader against another may not make people decide in the way some think it will.

Most of the Nationalists I know who are currently saying they won’t vote are not saying anything against Dr Gonzi himself. They talk generally about the PN, or the degradation of the environment or whatever their pet cause is, but I don’t detect any anti-PM feeling. And again the very bad blood that was there in the Eddie versus Sant days is clearly not there now. To both their credits, Sant and Gonzi do not display any sort of hatred towards each other. They clearly have different beliefs, but there is no real aggression, and this augurs well for our future.

Similarly among those who are saying they will now vote Labour, no strong feelings are uttered around the leader. People are going to vote for the package this time, a trend strategists from both sides seem to be ignoring. The focus is still always very macho, one leader pitted against the other. It is a strategy that works well with many, but no longer with all the populace. It certainly does not work with those who are younger. It certainly does not necessarily work with those who are floaters any more. It certainly does not work well enough with those who are disgruntled.

There is something in the air certainly. There is a lot of political campaigning but too much of it is not being noticed, and it’s not just this unbearably hot summer we’ve all had to tolerate. In the same way political parties stop campaigning around Christmas time perhaps we could have a moratorium on any politics when the temperature is over 30°C? I don’t think our brains can take it. We’ve been fighting off the heat for weeks, and I for one don’t want to think politics at all with these Saharan temperatures around, do you?

If only we were worried about global warming and how we would cope, or our children will cope when we have Saharan temperatures here, then I might become interested. Where is the vision? Where is all our future? Where is the young person’s involvement in politics here, or even his interest? Sadly our young, overdosed as they are by an over-rich, over-heavy curriculum are as obese in their minds as in many of their bodies. They can’t be bothered to think. They can’t be bothered to have an opinion, and especially about political choices. They understandably, after the ridiculous education we force feed them, just want to switch off and have fun or just hang out and be cool. They’re a lost generation politically, lost to Paceville and to IT. How on earth do we expect them to be interested in political choices is beyond me.

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